Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Perry lags in Texas

As Rick Perry contemplates a Presidential bid there's one place he can't expect a whole lot of support from: Texas. He polls at only 9% in a hypothetical Republican primary, putting him in sixth place. Mike Huckabee leads the way with 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin at 17%, and Mitt Romney and Ron Paul at 10%. Perry bests only Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Mitch Daniels at 3%.

It's not that Texas Republicans don't like Perry- his approval with them is a 65/26 spread, very healthy after escaping a spirited primary contest with just a shade over 50% of the vote last year. But whether it's because they don't think he's cut out for the White House or just that they think he should serve out the Gubernatorial term he was elected to only a couple of months ago they are not very supportive of him for a possible Presidential bid. His performance lags behind what we see for Pawlenty in Minnesota and even for Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania.

Assuming that Perry does not end up putting his hat in the ring Huckabee keeps his lead in the state with 25% to 21% for Palin, 17% for Gingrich, 10% for Romney, 9% for Paul, 5% for Pawlenty, and 3% for Daniels. Huckabee has by far the best favorability of the Republicans at a +56 spread (71/15), followed by Palin at +45 (69/24), Gingrich at +38 (60/22), and Romney at just +25 (52/27).

Those numbers for Romney are pretty ominous- they're an indication that he could really have some trouble connecting with voters in states that have heavily conservative Republican primary electorates, which frankly at this point is most of them. Winning across the board in the south would be a very big step toward a potential Huckabee nomination so these numbers bode well for him on that front.

Full results here

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Still waiting for the general election results for Texas. We've seen weak primary numbers for Romney but he still outperforms on the General Election question Palin and Gingrich in every state and he is either behind Huckabee by a few against Obama, tied, or doing better than Huckabee. Will Texas be the same?

I expect all GOP candidates to be leading Obama here. Huckabee by 12, Romney by 8, Gingrich by 7, Palin by 5.

Blue State Republican said...

I've been predicting since 2005 that Mike Huckabee would become president of the United States. The path is opening up for him before our very eyes.

BSR

Anonymous said...

Are you releasing the full national poll today ?

NRH said...

I would find it very surprising if even Palin makes Texas competitive just yet. It might be closer than we're used to seeing, but I don't think Texas is close enough to flirt with switching over.

The Interesting Times said...

Romney still leads Huckabee by 60-70 delegates in my 2012 Republican National Convention modeling. I will add that most of the South has already been polled, while much of the Northeast, Romney's presumed stronghold, has not been counted yet.

Romney is still the frontrunner, with a projected 583 delegates so far, though he's so longer that far ahead of Huckabee, who gets a projected 517 delegates so far.

The second tier has Palin with 233 delegates and Gingrich, who looked like he had a much better chance a few months ago, with 175 delegates.

The third tier includes Pawlenty with 54 delegates, Ron Paul with 21 delegates, Daniels with 5, and Thune with 3.

Keith Beaty said...

Lets all get together here and get behind Huckabee! He is the only one with a real plan. Better said he is the only one that seems to be able to articulate his plans in public- like the Fair Tax system!!

The Interesting Times said...

Is it just me, or are Huckabee's cheerleaders almost as incessantly annoying as the Ron Paul people?

You just don't get this kind of broken-record act from Romney's or Gingrich's or Pawlenty's supporters...

Anonymous said...

Well, Huckabee's supporters may be annoying to a few people, but let me assure you it is a growing fanbase -- so get used to it.

Patrick said...

Oh, Puh-lease, I've seen plenty of Romney supporters doing the broken record act - only theirs includes accusing anyone who is not for Romney of being religious bigots.

Romney is over with. Huckabee tied him in the most recent poll of his home-state of Michigan! Romney's toast and Huckabee will be the next GOP nominee. Look for Cain to be the V.P. pick and look for a GOP victory in Nov 2012.

Jonny V said...

Really anybody but Romney is a win for Obama.

I know Huckabee does well in your general election polling (in comparison to Gingrich and Palin) but I really think that's just because he's not well known --- when people find out about his extreme far right wing views on social issues he will be toast.

NRH said...

The Hucksters aren't as annoying as the Ron Paul people, but mostly because Huckabee currently does have a very legitimate chance of being the Republican nominee in 2012 while Ron Paul is once again the longest of long shots. The longer Huckabee goes without making any visible moves toward setting up a campaign apparatus, though, the less viable he seems. Huckabee relied on church groups in 2008 without a strong central campaign of his own; that might be enough to win him the Confederacy, but he'll need a much more organized effort if he's serious about running nationally this time.

 
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