Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Brown pulling away

Jerry Brown's pulling away in his quest to return to the California Governor's office and now leads Meg Whitman 53-42.

Given how many tens of millions of dollars Whitman spent on defining herself to the voters, it's somewhat remarkable how few of them she could get to like her. 55% see her unfavorably to only 36% with a positive opinion. Brown, on the other hand, has had voters warm up to him somewhat over the course of the campaign. His favorability ratio is 48/44, compared to 37/39 when PPP first took a look at the race back in May. His positives have increased by 11 points while his negatives have only gone up by 5.

Whitman has a 14 point lead with independents. But Brown has 86% of the Democratic vote locked up while Whitman is getting only 80% of Republicans. She would have needed more crossover support than that to win this race. Democrats are looking very solid at the top of the ticket in California.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

You are oversampling Democrats if Whitman is leading by 14 with independents.

I realize you want to get paid by Kos, but remember what happened to Research2000...

Dustin Ingalls said...

Suffolk showed almost the exact same results we did, and every pollster is showing both Boxer and Brown pulling out to larger leads. We have a contract with Kos, and it's not contingent on our results for even the polls we do for them, let alone our public, pro bono polls. 6 days until our critics eat crow....

Al Pippin said...

"6 days until our critics eat crow...."

You're so very funny Dustin. I'm laughing now and in 6 days I'll be rolling.

But of course, we're not talking about comedy here - now are we Dustin? Say credibility, credibility and ah yes, more credibility.

Marvin said...

Here's something I've been thinking about ... if it's true it would completely change the dynamic of polling.

Check it out.

I believe that a lot of Republicans are calling themselves "Independents" which is why the GOP has such a big lead with them.

But because these people call themselves independents doesn't really mean that they are. A lot of them are probably still registered as Republicans.

If this theory is true - it seems like it would seriously skew the weighting of the electorate and the "likely voter" screen.

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