Sunday, October 31, 2010

Miller leads in Alaska

Joe Miller is favored heading into the final two days of the US Senate campaign in Alaska. 37% of voters say they'll pick him while 30% plan to vote for Scott McAdams and another 30% plan to write in Lisa Murkowski.

Miller is winning despite having the worst personal favorability numbers of the three candidates. Only 36% have a positive opinion of him while 59% view him in a negative light. McAdams is by far the most popular with 50% rating him favorably to only 30% with an unfavorable one. Voters aren't very enamored with Murkowski either, giving her a 37/53 approval rating.

How can McAdams be so much more popular than Miller yet still be trailing the race? It's because 92% of the small group of voters that does like Miller is planning to vote for him. But only 56% of the voters with a positive opinion of McAdams are intending to cast their ballots for him, while 31% of them are going for Lisa Murkowski.

The high number of voters who like McAdams, dislike Miller, and are voting for Murkowski place the race in a whole different light than has been thought of the last few months. Murkowski's campaign, rather than propping herself up at the expense of Miller, may actually end up propping Miller up at the expense of McAdams. You never know how things would have unfolded in a two way race but Murkowski seems to be taking a lot more voters away from McAdams than she is from Miller.

It appears that Murkowski will lose this race. There are 2 main reasons for that. The first is that she retained little goodwill from Republicans after deciding to make an independent bid. Only 27% of GOP voters are planning to vote for her on Tuesday, down from 31% from a PPP poll earlier in October. The second reason Murkowski's headed for a loss is that she failed to dominate with independents. She is slightly ahead with them, getting 34% to 32% for McAdams and 31% for Miller. But they're not providing her with a strong base of support the way Democrats are for McAdams and Republicans for Miller.

In a cycle that has seen a lot of strange races, this one may well be the strangest. It would be premature to write off anyone at this point but Miller does look to be the favorite headed into the final stretch.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

You guys promised to do AK-AL!!!

Chuck T said...

I'm picking Alaska as my election night surprise with McAdams winning. I think that a lot of the Dems who are writing in Murkowski will in the end vote for McAdams. I think that Murkowski and Miller have been so negative that in the end some of the indies will go for the good guy too. Well, I made my prediction and I'm stuck with it!

Anonymous said...

Glad to see Miller doing so well.
I'm sending you a video: Who does America work for?

America needs to see this video:

Anonymous said...

Lisa bought the native Alaskan vote. If they come out in force, Lisa will win. My vote is for Joe.

teacherken said...

how do you account for poll that showed Miller a distant 3rd and sinking? And did the Republican campaign committee actually come in for Murkowski?

sybilll said...

Has the tail stopped wagging the dog?

Ted said...

Very interesting results. Do you have any explanation for the difference between PPP's results and those of other recent polls showing Murkowski ahead? Just curious.

akfisherman49 said...

Murkowsi's numbers are declining. McAdams support continues to grow and he has by far the highest favorability of anyone in the race. McAdams is on the ballot and is the only candidate who can beat Joe Miller.

Anonymous said...

Do you think it's an issue that your poll specifically asked Lisa Murkowski's name instead of forcing voters to volunteer it? That's probably overstating her numbers, but the question is to what degree.

Dorran said...

The wild differences in poll results have to do with the notorious difficulty of polling a write-in candidate's actual supporters -- will they actually bother to write her name in the booth, or say "the heck with it" and darken Miller's oval? That's particularly hard to know in a pre-election poll. When in doubt, ALWAYS check the poll's internals and examine the methodology and statistics of the survey.

Anonymous said...

Hard to believe any poll these days. It does suggest that one ought to vote for who they believe is the best candidate and bollocks all the posturing to vote for the lesser of the evils.

wt said...

I'm no huge Miller fan, but the Alaska media conspiring against him (and giving credence to Palin's "lamestream" media indictments) can only help him win this race. Tough to see how he loses this race on Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

Typical teabagging nonsense--they'd rather vote for a crook than admit that they bet the wrong horse. Same thing in Colorado, Wisconsin and Nevada--the idiots are coming out in force to vote for one of their own, no matter what that may do to the country or to their states, for that matter. Not so in New York and Delaware where reason appears to prevail (where it did not in the GOP primaries). In Illinois, Republicans are lining up to vote for a serial liar; in Wisconsin their chosen candidate lobbied against a bill on behalf of pedophiles; in Colorado and Alaska GOP candidates are lawyers who were nearly disbarred (and not-so-nearly fired) for unethical behavior.

When you are really, really stupid, admitting a mistake is not an option. So the entire bunch who "approve" of Miller will vote for him--and no one else will join them.

Anonymous said...

Alaska polls are notoriously inaccurate/unreliable. Can't tell you how many times Don Young was supposed to lose.

kb said...

Most of the world is headed for a massive train wreck. The United States has borrowed & printed so much money that we are very much a part of this train wreck. We can thank both parties for getting us in this problem. The lefts answer is to spend, spend, spend on more government. The RINOS are basically going along with this, but claiming their not. The Tea Party Candidates are the only candidates sincerely and intelligently planning on how we're going to avoid or minimize this total collapse.Our great state of Alaska is not immune to this train wreck and those who are too naive to recognize this, will vote for either Mcadams or Murcowski...those who's eyes and ears have been open and can see through the corrupt media and political spin...will vote for JOE MILLER! It's your choice and your future!

Anonymous said...

Alaska's own Dittman poll is the most reliable and most accurate for years on end. Dittman polls Alaskans as giving Murkowski the seat again by a large margin.

A month ago she still had it the only change now is the backlash on Miller but he deserves all the scrutiny and disdain for being a CREEP.

Eric Dondero said...

Bottom line: Alaskans simply do not want to vote for a Democrat. Funny how PPP spins the results to show that McAdams is somehow "well-liked." Yet they don't even mention the obvious. Alaskans just dislike Democrats, and anyone with a 'D' by their name.

You take the combined Murkowski/Miller vote and that's 67%. That's a whopping rejection of the Democrat Party and Democrat policies. Murkowski has said she would remain a Republican.

Why PPP didn't you say a single word about this?

Paul B. said...

Look at the wording of the poll's first question:

"In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in Lisa Murkowski, or are you planning to write in someone else?"

That is improper, loaded wording. A write-in is just that - written in. The list of registered write-in candidates is not provided to the voters except on request:

"the Supreme Court decision allows voters at early voting sites to see the lists if they say they need help and want to be shown a list of write-in candidates."

Most voters probably will not bother. They will enter the booth and pick one of the listed candidates.

This question should have said, "... or will you write in your own choice." Then a follow-up question could have probed which write-in those who would write in would choose.

This means that Murkowski's numbers are grossly inflated. And given AK's Republican bent, I believe that Miller will be its next senator.

Anonymous said...

"how do you account for poll that showed Miller a distant 3rd and sinking? And did the Republican campaign committee actually come in for Murkowski?" - becasue that was a jimmied poll dude. they are now at the end and have to stop baking and faking the numbers. this is the poll they will hang their accuracy rating on. so they stop the funny business. which in most cases is an attempt to bolster the dems. get their base out, etc. bascially to help the dems. when its time for the truth, at the end, even thse guys stop lieing. funny huh? but thats whats going on. if you beleived that earlier poll, you were a useful idiot. just what they wanted you to be. a dupe. mind numbed robot.

"Bottom line: Alaskans simply do not want to vote for a Democrat." - uh, yeah, duh. neither does anyone else in the country guy. the generic ballot question tilts GOP more than it ever has in history. since they've been polling it. BHO is in the slow motion process of brininging hope and change to the country. destroying the dems except for the coasts, making them a regional party(and when the new doofus gov in cali crashes the state that coast will be gone too) and a GOP majority for a generation. just in time for the grown-ups to cleanup the mess both parties have made the last 20 years.

Anonymous said...

I'll be happiest if Murkowski loses, period. She's the textbook example of an unprincipled politician who cares only about her own power-seeking. She's wholly worse than your average despicable politician.

watch this

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Do you think it's an issue that your poll specifically asked Lisa Murkowski's name instead of forcing voters to volunteer it? That's probably overstating her numbers, but the question is to what degree."

Obviously respondents to an automated poll can't totally volunteer a response--it has to be mentioned by the recording and have a corresponding button to push. But what we did, as on the Alaska poll we did for Daily Kos, is ask two questions--the first if they will vote for McAdams, Miller, or someone else, and then of those who say "someone else," if they will vote for minor candidate A, minor candidate B, write in Murkowski, or write in someone else. We just combined that and the leaner question into one final result to report.

"Bottom line: Alaskans simply do not want to vote for a Democrat."

For a state with such a huge GOP registration advantage, Democrats have been doing remarkably well there of late. See: Begich's victory over Stevens in a year Palin was bringing even more Republicans to the polls than usual; and Knowles almost beating Murkowski last time in another somewhat Republican year.

"You take the combined Murkowski/Miller vote and that's 67%."

Not exactly. Murkowski's getting 28% of the Democratic vote, just slightly more than she's even getting of her own party's vote. The real story is that there are just way more Republicans (at 32% of the electorate) than Democrats (21%), and that Murkowski is getting the support of a lot of Democrats who don't think McAdams can win. If they did, he'd win easily because Murkowski and Miller would be splitting the GOP.

Anonymous said...

Lisa was given that senate seat by her daddy, and no one should be able to take it away from her. It is her inheritance, her birthright.

I sure hope the people of Alaska realize that having a monarchy is not all bad. After all, wouldn't Lisa look terrific in a crown and cape?

Dustin Ingalls said...

"becasue that was a jimmied poll dude. they are now at the end and have to stop baking and faking the numbers. this is the poll they will hang their accuracy rating on. so they stop the funny business. which in most cases is an attempt to bolster the dems. get their base out, etc. bascially to help the dems. when its time for the truth, at the end, even thse guys stop lieing."

That poll he was referring to wasn't ours. We've had Miller leading all three times we've looked at the race since the primary. And, of course, we don't "jimmy" polls. We use the same methodology every time, and our business revenue depends on our accuracy all year, not just in the final week. We had a remarkably good record in the primaries.

Also: correction to what I said earlier, when I was going on a hunch. After doing a little math, McAdams actually would still be a point or two shy of winning if Murkowski wasn't getting any of the Dem vote at all. But he would still have significantly more support and be close to winning.

Anonymous said...

The other polls were all paid for by vested interests aka the Murkowski campaign, the Natives, and the Democratic party. Rasmussen and this poll are the only one's polling Alaska without a vested interest.

The others are essentially internal polls.

Also when it comes down to the wire independent candidates almost always fade and recent events in Alaska, such as the write in candidate list being given to voters, and intimidation of a radio talk show host may have created a backlash against Murkowski.

Event his poll probably overestimates her support because they provided her name. The oversees military vote (unpolled)which is substantial in Alaska will also go for Miller a bronze cross war veteran.

I'd go with lower, maybe 25%.

Kansan said...

Eric Dondero's comments are the most laughable on this site.

He's sure that Alaskans wouldn't vote for Democrats, yet the Alaska state senate is split 10-10, the state has elected more Democrats to the U.S. Senate than Republicans and the same number of Governors.

He's a "libertarian" but was a co-founder of the the group that promoted Sarah Palin as McCain's vice presidential nominee. She's against drugs, though she used them. She's against abortions in cases of rape and incest though she appeared to do her best, though unsucessfully, to miscarry her Down syndrome child. She's against out of control spending but her administration hugely overspent even with oil prices at historic highs. She lied about virtually everything, as the public soon found out two years ago. She is personally perhaps the most avaricious politician to appear on the American scene in years.

Dondero compares McAdams in the polls to Murkowski and Miller, but Miller has actually tanked, big time, in the polls. He won't poll 30% and only will get near that because early voters were unaware that he was such a fraud and a liar.

Palin's endorsement is worth next to squat in Alaska. He won the primary by publicly rejecting all those things he did secretly and getting a free ride from the press.

McAdams is finally being noticed, by a media that was entirely captivated by a candidate that was rejected by the national party establishment versus a Tea Party favorite who benefited from a flood of Koch Industries arms length outside money. Scott is surging in the polls.

Dustin Ingalls said...

I wouldn't think the overseas vote would have much impact on the results. Our home state, NC, is an even bigger military state, and our results here have still been very accurate without polling them.

Anonymous said...

Polling in Alaska is terribly difficult. For instance, 13 percent of people in Alaska Native villages had no telephone service compared to 2 percent at the national level, according to a 2006 GAO study. With Miller's outright hostility to Native people and the ballot measure #1, I think Alaska Natives, who make up 16 percent of the voter age population, will be voting in full force tomorrow. We'll see which polls are right I hope not too soon in the future...

Anonymous said...

Murkowski, McAdams, and the media have launched an all out negative blitz against The West Point honors war hero father of 8 children. Negative story after negative story on Miller's personal character. Yet the media doesn't bother digging into Murkowski's or McAdams' personal history. They don't bother telling us about Murkowski's record in the Senate, or her views on the issues.

Miller's negatives are high specifically because of this orchestrated coordinated attack on his personal character. I know it won't happen, but I would like the media to do their homework and treat the candidates fairly and equally.

Anonymous said...

The poll that showed Joe Miller behind by 16 points was done by "Alaskans Standing Together", a pro-Lisa Murkowski group. It was probably a "push poll". I live in Anchorage and have been on the receiving end of a few of these over the years (always by people for the candidate that is losing at the time). For example they could have asked the question, "Given that Joe Miller is an admitted liar and wants to hurt Alaska's economy, who will you vote for: Joe Miller, Scott McAdams, or write-in LISA MURKOWSKI".

Anonymous said...

@ Kansas:

Yawn. Typical liberal SSDD.

- Kansas2

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