Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Obama's big drop in blue states

One of the most amazing things in our polling over the last month has been how dreadfully bad Barack Obama's approval numbers are with likely voters in a lot of states that he won by large margins in 2008. We've polled 12 states since the beginning of September that Obama won by at least 9 points and in all but 3 of those states- Hawaii, California, and New York- his numbers are under water.

The states where we do now find Obama with negative numbers that he won easily in 2008- Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine, Connecticut, Colorado, and Illinois.

In the places where the bulk of likely voters disapprove of Obama it's not very hard to see the contribution that's making to tough Democratic prospects this fall. Democrats at this point are favored to lose Governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Maine. Illinois and even New Hampshire are possible losses as well. The party is also favored to lose its Senate in Wisconsin, could lose them in Illinois and Colorado, looks like it will miss out on a once bright pick up opportunity in New Hampshire, and had to be bailed out by the Tea Party in Delaware.

The big question moving forward- how much of this is Obama voters going to the Republicans and how much of it is simply Obama voters not being part of this year's likely electorate? It's likely a combination of the 2, and what exactly the mix is will play a large role in determining Obama's fate in 2012.

Here are Obama's numbers in these states:


Obama Approval


2008 Margin of Victory









New York




















New Hampshire




New Mexico

















Christian Liberty said...

Election Day Debacle Looming for Democrats

---Increasingly, the disdain for healthcare reform is bipartisan, The Hill poll shows. In 12 key battleground districts, 56 percent of voters said they want a flat-out repeal of Obamacare. The key undecided demographic favored repeal by a 49 percent to 27 percent margin. Even among Democrats, nearly 25 percent favored repeal. Pollster Mark Penn tells The Hill, "There's no question that the independents are largely coming to the side of the Republican Party and are extremely dissatisfied with Congress."

Mac G said...

Nice comments Christian Liberty. Any more right wing sites you can reference as some gospel?

Just think how many more people in Michigan would be unemployed if Bob Corker got his way and destroyed the US auto industry. Instead, the Obama administration saved those jobs and yet, 54 percent disapprove. It is maddening.

Anonymous said...

did you do congressional vote totals in NY by any chance?

Chuck T said...

Well since the likely electorate is much more conservative than in 2008 or even 2006 it isn't really all that surprising that Obama's approval ratings are much lower among this likely voter poll than it is among all registered voters. In many of these states if you were doing a regular poll of all voters he would be higher and he would be higher in 2012 because more people will be involved. But that doesn't help the democrats this year--unless many of these people who aren't sure if they will vote suddenly do vote and then there may be some surprises. It all depends on the Dems GOTV efforts especially in states like WI and NV where people like Feingold and Reid are behind or tied among likely voters but ahead among registerd voters.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"did you do congressional vote totals in NY by any chance?"

No way to do congressional districts when you're polling statewide in a state like NY that has a million and one districts.

Christian Liberty said...

Mac G, you have successful shown yourself to be a complete and total ignoramus. Bankruptcy would not just a single job. That's why they call it bankruptcy PROTECTION. The car makers would be PROTECTED from their creditors. Congress STEALING money from taxpayers to prop up failing automakers (and their corrupt unions) was absolutely the WRONG choice.

The Obama administration STOLE from hundreds of millions of taxpayers. The fact that even a SINGLE person in America supports the THUG-in-chief shows how much the left wing has brainwashed American voters.

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