Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Onorato within 2

The Democratic resurgence in Pennsylvania isn't limited to Joe Sestak. PPP's new poll of the Governor's race finds Dan Onorato pulling to within 2 points of Tom Corbett, 48-46.

The reasons for Onorato's improved standing are the same as Sestak's:

1) The likely electorate for this fall is trending in a more Democratic direction. When PPP found Corbett ahead by 13 points in mid-August those planning to vote this fall in Pennsylvania reported having voted for John McCain by a 1 point margin in 2008. Now the likely electorate supported Barack Obama by 4 points, still a drop from his actual 10 point win but at least an indication that the party's voters are picking up their level of enagement.

2) Democratic voters are getting more unified around Onorato. He's seen his support from within his party jump 13 points over the last couple months from 62% to 75%. Corbett's also seen a gain in his party support across that period of time but it hasn't been quite as large, from 74% to 82%.

3) Independents are now splitting pretty evenly. In August Corbett had a commanding 52-20 lead with them. Now it's just 48-46.

Despite the Onorato surge this poll can also be seen as encouraging for Corbett. He hasn't lost any support from his 48% standing in August and the undecideds in this race are exceedingly low at just 6%. So Corbett doesn't have to pick up much more support to get over 50%.

This is a most unusual race for this fractured political climate in that Pennsylvania voters like both Corbett and Onorato. Corbett has a 47/34 favorability rating and is seen positively by even 25% of Democrats. Onorato's favorability is 45/39. Both Gubernatorial candidates are more popular than either of the Senate candidates.

Corbett's lead persists because he's getting 18% of the Democratic vote while Onorato is winning only 12% of Republicans. Ed Rendell's unpopularity is not doing Onorato any favors. 54% of voters disapprove of him as he prepares to leave office and 70% of the Democrats who are planning to vote for Corbett are displeased with the job Rendell is doing.

Corbett remains the favorite but this race at least looks like it will end up being a lot closer than it was over the summer.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

The Democratic resurgence in Pennsylvania is limited only to PPP.


Mountain Blue said...

This was a pretty bad day for Jensen and Co., getting called out by Silver and Cost.

What pollster would pick a more democratic year than 2008 to base their results on? Jensen's partisan tactics become all too obvious.

As Cost said, pollsters are beginning to make polls to move public opinion rather than reflect it; PPP clearly leads the way in that endeavor.

Anonymous said...

This sample was shit.

NRH said...

Wah wah wah, all the right-wing teatards come out to complain. The corroborating poll from Muhlenberg doesn't penetrate, apparently. For that matter, Silver's analysis was simply that momentum doesn't have much statistical backing - not that sustained movements don't happen, just that they don't *consistently* happen.

Anonymous said...

Upcoming headlines from PPP:

"Utah Senate Race Now a Toss Up"
"Blanche Lincoln now leads in Arkansas Senate Race"
"Democrat takes unexpected lead in Idaho Governor Race"
"Obama approval rating now 99%"

"PPP is the most accurate pollster"
-Joseph Goebbels
The Republicans have no chance of winning the house, NEVER. -Baghdad Bob

Chuck T said...

Anonymous said...
The Democratic resurgence in Pennsylvania is limited only to PPP.

Wrong, a new independent poll out of PA today--the Morning Call Poll has Sestak leading by 3 and a narrower margin in the Governor's race as well.

Anonymous said...

Are we in Wonderland yet?

No one's surprised that the PA senate race has tightened (of course, it's not a one point race). But this Gov. poll is a fiction. Corbett is not a super right-winger like Toomey ... and Republicans of his stripe tend to do pretty well in PA. He is the attorney general, after all, and has won his previous statewide races by 6-10 points.

So, dream on, fellas.

Al Pippin said...

You can't be serious???

Matt said...

Fair enough that Sestak is closing in as the Dem engagement goes up, but come on Tom. Quinnipiac and the state tracking poll have have the senate race close but the governor's race? No way.

No one has seen Onorato within seven points, much less two. And while I get that you have the Kos Kids bankrolling you these days that's no reason to turn into an internal Dem poll.

I believe this as much as I believe that Whitman and Fiorina are up by a couple of points in Calif.

Anonymous said...

The sample was shit.

And this result confirms it, for any still doubting.

Jonathan said...

You can't be serious??


Morning Call Tracking, 10/17 - 10/20: Corbett +11

PPP (D), 10/17 - 10/18: Corbett +2

Rasmussen Reports, 10/12 - 10/12: Corbett +14

As with their other polls this week, PPP is committed to moving polls, not reporting them.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"And while I get that you have the Kos Kids bankrolling"

The only thing they're bankrolling is the two polls we do for them each week.

The Lizard said...

Yes, the Morning Call has Corbett up by 11. But here is what it actually said. "Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett holds an equally wide 38-27 percent lead over Democrat Dan Onorato, pollsters found."

Now do the math. That comes to 66% of those polled who even have an opinion. I count 34% who haven't made up their minds, and that without the margin of error. Pennsylvania has never elected an attorney general as governor. Corbett should be whacking Onorato, and he's not. How's that "Unemployed Pennsylvanians are lazy" thing workin' out for you Tom? By the way, the MC poll only calls landlines.

Chuck T said...

PPP detects a trend again! Today Quinnipiac came out with a poll for PA Governor and shows Onorato within 5. Face it folks, you might not like it but PPP usually detects trends before other pollsters do, and Quinnipiac has been fairly tough this year on the Dems. They also show the senate race getting tight--just like PPP:

Race for Pennsylvania Governor Tightens
A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows Dan Onorato (D) has erased most of Tom Corbett's (R) 15-point likely voter lead and now trails by just five points in the race for governor, 49% to 44%.

Said Peter Brown: "As we get closer to Election Day, Democrats are showing more interest in voting. This is often the case in off-year elections and that makes this a more competitive race. Onorato has the momentum, but Corbett still has the five-point lead with 11 days to go."

Dustin Ingalls said...

Yeah, Q has had a huge R lean this year.

NRH said...

Oh, and here comes the right wing's favorite pollster, Rasmussen - and even he now shows Sestak picking up six from Razzie's own previous poll (the only one to show Toomey with a lead outside the MoE in October). Anybody on the right want to admit that they were engaging in a little wishful thinking to dismiss PPP again? Bueller? Bueller?

Chuck T said...

Even RAS now has Onorato going from 14-points down to 5-points down in a new poll out today. Once again PPP is one of the first to detect this movement.

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