Thursday, June 2, 2011

Klobuchar on very solid ground

Amy Klobuchar continues to rank as one of the most popular Senators in the country and looks safe for reelection next year no matter who the Republicans run against her.

61% of voters approve of the job Klobuchar's doing to 28% who disapprove. Her support from Democrats is pretty much unanimous (88/6), she has an unusual level of crossover popularity with Republicans (28% approval), and her numbers with independents are stellar at 62/27.

Klobuchar's popularity has pretty much driven off well known Republicans from challenging her. Announced candidate Dan Severson has 21% name recognition and Chris Barden and Dave Thompson, also mentioned as potential candidates, are known to only 18% of voters in the state. Klobuchar leads Barden and Thompson by 27 points each at 57-30 and 55-28 respectively and has a 28 point advantage over Severson at 56-28. In each of those match ups Klobuchar leads by around 30 points with independents and picks up about 10% of the Republican vote while losing only 1% of the Democratic vote.

Because the field of likely candidates is so obscure we also tested Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann against Klobuchar on the off chance one of them should decide to drop their White House bid and run for the Senate instead. Only 40% of Minnesota voters now have a favorable opinion of Pawlenty to 53% with an unfavorable one and he would trail Klobuchar by 13 points at 54-41. Those numbers are pretty bad but he looks downright popular compared to Bachmann. Only 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 59% with an unfavorable one and she trails Klobuchar by 20 points at 57-37.

With those sorts of favorability numbers I doubt Bachmann or Pawlenty could win a statewide race for dog catcher in Minnesota, much less President or the Senate.

Klobuchar's one of the safest Senators in the country up for reelection next year. You want to look for a Minnesota politician who could have serious Presidential potential somewhere down the line? It's probably Klobuchar. There are few Democratic Senators who have as much appeal across party lines as her and she manages that popularity with independents and Republicans without antagonizing voters within her own party. That's a good formula if she can take it national.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

I've thought for a while that Klobuchar might be a Presidential contender in a few years.

Anonymous said...

More great news for the Dems! Am I the only one who is seeing a more blatant bias coming through in these polls of late?

Anonymous said...

Basically, if you are a Republican who gets a wish from a genie who emerges from some old flask, don't wish that the next President of the United States comes from Minnesota.

Anonymous said...

Huh, interesting thought. I don't think Klobuchar has much of a national profile at the moment; president would be a while off, at the earliest.

Anonymous said...

You should do a poll on what people of the MN-06 think of Michele Bachmann's President run. Would the MN-06 re-elect Bachmann?

wt said...

Can you clarify whether the Klobuchar presidential buzz is pre-rapture or post-rapture?


coolidgen said...

What happened to Norm Colman from Franken's election? Is he talking about a campaign?

Also, I would think that Klobuchar could be an amazing candidate in 2016. She is steller, and I think can play to both moderates and progressives. I actually met her in New Hampshire in 2008, while campaigning for Obama. She's so strong on so many issues.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"What happened to Norm Colman from Franken's election? Is he talking about a campaign?"

We polled him against her back in December, and he also got creamed. I think he's declined a run this time.

I Am Iron Man said...

She could possibly be a great DEM VP in 2016... or maybe even 2012... but I think it's highly unlikely at this point that Biden won't be on for another term.

Maybe she could run for President in 2016 she would have 10 years in the Senate under her belt.


As far as more great news for Dems that's not because of bias, but because the American people are waking up to what the Republicans are selling and finding out that they don't actually want:

(#1) The elimination of Medicare.

(#2) Even more tax cuts for millionaires & billionaires.

(#3) Huge cuts to everything that benefits average Americans while giving even more tax breaks to fat cat corporate pigs.

(#4) Playing politics with absolutely everything, even emergency funding (see funding for tornado victims being held up by GOP.)

(#5) Holding the US economy hostage (debt ceiling threats) to get far right wing BS pushed through.

Bill Earley said...

I think Klobuchar could be president in 2016 . I get the same feeling for her as I had for Mr. Obama(SMART).

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