Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Texas lukewarm on Perry bid

A potential Rick Perry Presidential bid has been getting oodles of attention in the last few weeks. There's one place where voters aren't real into the possibility though- Texas. Only 33% of voters in the state think he should make a bid for the White House compared to 59% opposed to him running. More surprising than that? Perry actually trails Barack Obama 47-45 in a hypothetical match up in the state.

Perry's trailing Obama certainly has nothing to do with the President being popular. Only 42% of voters in the state like the job he's doing to 55% who rate him poorly. Texas is a Republican state to begin with him and Obama has a lot more Democrats (14%) who disapprove of him than GOP voters who approve (6%) and beyond that he's on negative ground with independents at 46/47.

Perry, however, is almost as unpopular. Only 43% of voters approve of him with 52% giving him bad marks. Most striking in Perry's numbers is a horrible 33/62 standing with independents. He also has 21% of Republicans disapproving of him while only 12% of Democrats cross over to give him good marks. Perry may prove to be a strong Presidential candidate but his numbers in Texas are nothing to write home about.

The only potential Republican candidate for President in Texas who does as bad as Perry is Sarah Palin. She has a 37/55 favorability breakdown and trails Obama 46-44 in a head to head. That's just more confirmation that the GOP nominating her could lead to a 400+ electoral vote landslide reelection for Obama.

Most of the rest of the GOP field leads Obama. Mitt Romney fares the best with an 8 point lead at 50-42, Ron Paul is up 5 at 45-40, Michele Bachmann has a 3 point advantage at 47-44, and Tim Pawlenty's up by a single point at 44-43. Herman Cain ties the President at 43%.

Before Democrats get too excited about the prospect of winning Texas this needs to be noted- the vast majority of undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama is doing. For instance in the match up with Perry 88% of undecideds disapprove of Obama's job performance to only 8% who approve. If you allocate the undecided voters based on their assessment of Obama that shifts the numbers 7 points and puts Perry ahead by 5.

The undecideds break down similarly in most of the head to heads between Obama and the various respective GOP candidates, something that would seem to reflect a lot of voters disliking the President but having their doubts about the GOP field of candidates as well. When push comes to shove those folks are not likely to be in the President's corner.

One thing that would definitely help Obama's prospects of winning the state though? If everyone who thought Texas should secede from the union just stayed home from the polls next year. 18% of voters think the state should secede to 71% who are opposed to the idea with 11% unsure. The 18% who want to secede are 61% Republicans and only 13% Democrats. So the voters left over would almost surely put Texas into the blue column- with the 71% who oppose secession Obama leads Romney by 6, Paul by 12, Pawlenty, Cain, and Bachmann by 15, Palin by 17, and Perry by 19. Demographic change may make Texas winnable for Democrats in the long run but in the shorter term successfully encouraging the secessionists to stay at home would be a winning strategy.

One final note on Texas- we did an analysis a couple weeks ago finding that most of the Republican Presidential candidates had upside down favorability numbers in their home states and backers of Ron Paul were very mad we didn't have Texas numbers for him. Now we do- 30% of voters rate him favorably to 46% with a negative opinion. So he's as unpopular on the home front as all the rest.

Full results here


buff2011 said...

I think this poll hits it on the head except for the Paul numbers. I am a Texan and I really don't think that 76% of the population know who he is. The -16 spread is probably create on the margins, but the total is a little far from what I would estimate.

Anonymous said...

If you're polling is accurate, then all potential GOP Presidential candidates are unpopular in their own backyard. This means that Obama is in a good shape to win re-election regardless of the economy.

Anonymous said...

"If you're polling is accurate, then all potential GOP Presidential candidates are unpopular in their own backyard. This means that Obama is in a good shape to win re-election regardless of the economy."

His polling isn't accurate though... until it gets close to an actual election... anyone who thinks Obama would have a chance of beating Perry in Texas is an idiot.

Dustin Ingalls said...

Polling is only ever a snapshot in time, not a projection, especially this early. Tom acknowledged that it's unlikely Obama would be able to actually win the state because of the feelings of the undecided.

Anonymous said...

"I think this poll hits it on the head except for the Paul numbers. I am a Texan and I really don't think that 76% of the population know who he is. The -16 spread is probably create on the margins, but the total is a little far from what I would estimate."

People who took the time to participate in this poll probably have some sort of interest in politics, which is why 76% of the population knows who Paul is.

Anonymous said...

Who the hell keeps electing him in Texas, then??? I mean, I'm not a Kay Bailey fan by any means, but I liked her better than Perry. How on earth did she lose? Oh, wait. That's right, she's a woman, and this is a back-assward anti-woman state.

ThatGuy said...

I think some people are missing the trend. You have a year essentially before these numbers really solidify. But the fact that the State where the contender is from, and who supposedly know him the best are at best tepid, means that the GOP, whomever the candidate is will have to spend even more time and energy shoring up these flanks, which means less time spent schmoozing the swing states, and even more dysfunction between independent spenders and the campaigns themselves at the State and local levels. Run 'em ragged Obama!

Anonymous said...

Obama has no chance in Texas.

Anonymous said...

"Oh, wait. That's right, she's a woman, and this is a back-assward anti-woman state."

Yep. That's how Ann Richards got elected. Numb-skull!

Anonymous said...

Another day another push poll from PPP.

Anonymous said...

"Oh, wait. That's right, she's a woman, and this is a back-assward anti-woman state."

That's right, so anti-woman that we elected Kay Bailey to US Senator in the '93 special election, and re-elected her in '94, '00, and '06. Misogyny, thy name is Texas!

PS, Ann Richards sends her best.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the crosstabs, 52 percent of those polled describe themselves as conservative while only 19 describe themselves as liberal.
Yet Obama wins against Perry by 2 points?
Yet Obama wins against Palin by 2 points?
Yet Perry's favorable rating is 6 points higher than Palin's among the base?
This poll doesn't make much sense. PPP, a Democratic polling outfit, is fishing for headlines with a skewed poll.

Anonymous said...

The real story is that Obama can't break 50% against a dog catcher. This is bnot good news for Team Obama.

TexKB said...

Anonymous said, "How on earth did she lose? Oh, wait. That's right, she's a woman, and this is a back-assward anti-woman state."

Speak for yourself because you certainly don't speak for Texas.
RINO KBR has failed as a conservative. It's long past time for her retirement.

Anonymous said...

Gee, more PPPropaganda for Obama!
Don't believe it for a second. Go on and get outside Austin, cowgirl!

Anonymous said...

What an obvious bogus poll. You should be ashamed of yourself..I am a former politico in Texas and I can tell this is not likely voters with a correct mix. This are the same pollsters that showed Kay Bailey and White would beat Perry by 10 points before his last campaigns.

If this poll was even close as to the true sentiments of Texans then the historical turnover of the Texas Legislature to TEA Party members probably never happened....It is all a terrible PPP/Demo Party nightmare...Come on guys dont embarass yourselves anymore...we are too smart out here and your slip is showing and it is dirty too.

Without the details these are propbably not likely voters and you skewed

sem042004 said...

People have been saying how unpopular Rick Perry is in Texas for about 10 or so years now. Don't believe it. The right has several axes to grind with him, but they will back him if it comes down to Perry or Obama. This poll is worthless. A Paulite will answer a poll one way, but I hope they will vote for Perry over Obama. I'm libertarian, but I know that Paul has a snowball's chance in Texas of winning the national election. Perry would likely be more austere than Bush and more libertarian than the other GOP candidates minus Paul and Johnson.

Dustin Ingalls said...

OldSalt: You can't do math. The plurality of TX voters say they are moderate, and Obama leads Palin and Perry by 54-55 points with them. Ballgame right there.

Anon @ 3:49: No, it's registered voters, and all the "details" are plainly available if you can read.

Anonymous said...

Dustin Ingalls, my math is fine as these extracts from the crosstabs bear out.
52% of the sample identified as conservative vs 19 as liberal. You can do 4th grade math in the games you play...right?

"Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 6%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 13%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 26%
Very conservative ........................................... 26%"

Dustin Ingalls said...

That's not a crosstab. The figures I quoted were from crosstabs. If a candidate is getting almost three quarters of the largest voting bloc, he's going to be winning. The only reason it's not a rout is because the state is otherwise so conservative, and those folks favor the Republicans heavily.

Anonymous said...

Obama will be lucky if he gets 35% of the votes in Texas. The Mexican's don't like him and 20% of the Black's have no use for him. What ever your smoking must be good stuff.

Anonymous said...

Don’t care if Obama tries to move up in the world by running for Governor of the great state of Texas, I’m just not going to vote for him. LOL. I am "The Wolf Counselor" in Austin, Texas.

Tina F. said...

Hold the phone. We're about to move our California company to Flower Mound, TX. We plan on developing a campus for 2600 workers but......this confuses me. Who are true Texas conservatives looking at or is this liberal stacking of the deck.

NRH said...

The snapshot in time isn't really the big takeaway. Yes, with a unified Democratic base and a Republican base that hasn't committed, Obama looks competitive. As Tom pointed out, those numbers are dependent on a large group of likely Republican voters refusing to answer, and with Republicans still fragmented in the primary. What's more interesting is the long-term trend.

Texas is a hard case for trend analysis because it had Perot twice making decent showing in 92 and 96, and then a native son in 2000 and 2004, but if you assume that most of the Perot vote would have gone to Bush or Dole in Texas, it was easy double-digit wins, and Clinton almost certainly was never within shooting distance in the state. The fact that Obama is close or leading in some scenarios shows the long-term shift Texas is experiencing.

The crosstabs back that up - the strongest Republican cohort by far is the 65+ category. Not to be morbid, but as elderly Republicans die off and are replaced by younger Democrats, the state will continue to shift. It's not yet, but the change is continuing quickly; Texas may genuinely be competitive in 2016, and I expect it will be very much up for grabs in 2020, barring a dramatic political shift.

Anonymous said...

Actually, we wondered not what Ron was thought of in his home state, where I see he beats Obama handily, but what his head to head results against Obama are in the states where he does better such as the libertarian leaning west. Net favorables are pretty irrelevant since you can't vote twice against someone, you just vote once for whom you want. Those were the numbers you wanted to poll, not the numbers we were asking for.

I Am Iron Man said...

I know it seems like most of those undecideds would break against the President but I think we should consider just how terrible a nominee like Michele Bachmann would look after going through a campaign.

Obama has already been attacked relentlessly for years. What more can they say about him? They really don't have anything on the guy. He's doing a good job in an incredible difficult situation left by the absolutely terrible Republican administration before him.

Most Americans know very little about Michele Bachmann. Imagine how they will feel about her when they learn she said that we should get rid of the minimum wage? And that's just the tip of the iceberg with her.

I think Texas could be winnable if the Republicans put up a truly terrible candidate like Bachmann. Here's hoping.

Anonymous said...

What you numbskulls (libs) need to understand is that they took 100, maybe 1,000 people and asked them. This is NOT what the WHOLE of Texas would go on. I for one wouldn't vote for Obama if he was the only one there. Perry is my choice....he will be my choice.....and the republican base will follow him.

A poll is nothing better than toilet paper......

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