Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Voting time

We'll take the top two winners of the poll above. Your choices (the blurbs for the losers of last week's poll (NM, PA, and TX) are taken verbatim from Tom's post then):

-Georgia. With Newt tanking in the polls and his staff down to about himself and his wife, and with Cain posting respectable numbers in the primary matchups we've done since the South Carolina debate, it'll be interesting to see how they do in the primary here now and against President Obama, who hopes to put the state in play. When we polled there in early April, Obama was narrowly leading Cain, Newt, and Palin, and barely trailing Romney and Huckabee, and Huckabee barely topped Gingrich, with Cain in a close third in the primary.

-New Hampshire. We had Obama over Romney by only one point in early April. With Romney showing strength in IA and SC recently with Huckabee's absence, I wonder how much his overwhelming lead in the primary has grown, and if Pawlenty, Bachmann, or Cain, who are rising elsewhere, are making any traction on Romney's summer home turf.

-New Mexico. We have not taken a look at the state since Jeff Bingaman announced his retirement- should be interesting to see how things are looking in both Senate primaries and in the general election. We'll look at President obviously too but this is one place where I think it will be a while before the GOP is competitive again.

-Pennsylvania. We found really brutal numbers for Obama there in early April, pre-bin Laden, including a small deficit in a head to head with Mitt Romney. Interesting to see if things still look as gloomy for him there.

-Tennessee. There isn't much going on here unless Phil Bredesen challenges Bob Corker, but a poll just came out showing President Obama leading various Republicans here. While he was doing better back in February than he did against McCain, we didn't find that to be remotely the case.

-Texas. We haven't polled there since the start of the year- curious to see if folks are any warmer toward a Rick Perry Presidential bid than they were in January and also to check in on the Senate race and see if that's looking any more winnable for Democrats than it did 5 months ago.

Voting will be open for the next 24 hours or so.


Anonymous said...

Texas. This state is tough to poll, as it is diverse enough that it easily offers bad samples, but there was an incredible poll by the Texas Tribune that showed President Obama with a 51% approval.

I expect Texas to be closer in 2012 for President Obama, if not a likely win. There will be an open Senate seat, and of course I would like to see whether Rick Perry has anywhere near the chance to use the Governorship as a springboard to the Presidency -- never mind that his predecessor as Governor became a disaster as President.

Statistikhengst said...

Georgia and New Mexico, hands down.

The Interesting Times said...

Texas or Georgia would be my choice.

Texas is probably the most conservative of all the "big" states. If Romney can win in Texas, he's almost a shoo-in for the nomination.

With Gingrich's campaign disintegrating, Georgia could be the first state Cain wins outright.

Isaac said...

The Interesting Times,

Why do you think Romney is a shoo-in for the nomination if he wins Texas? Texas doesn't vote until March, so by the time the primary season got to Texas, the Republicans will have likely settled on a candidate. Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida carry much more weight than Texas does in the primaries.

Anonymous said...

If you poll Texas you have to poll Tommy Lee Jones in the Senate race

Anonymous said...

I would say Texas and Tennessee as my choice. I strongly disagree with others that Texas will be competitive in 2012. Anyone who thinks this simply does not understand southern and Texas politics.

Even in spite of massive minority turnout in 2008, Texas wasn't competitive and 2010 was a Dem implosion in the state. Texas will almost certainly be a double digit Republican win in 2012.

As always, whichever states 'win' in this poll, I hope that you ask the gay marriage question!

Anonymous said...

For future questions: Can ypou poll Utah. I only ask this to clarify since you can't poll North Dakota or Indiana. I'm not asking this as a suggestion, just to see if it's possible to go out in the field in Utah.

Thank you,

Dustin Ingalls said...

Yes, we logistically can poll Utah.

Anonymous said...

Ask a Jose Vargas question in the next poll please. Perhaps two questions for subsamples like this:

"Do you believe that all illegal immigrants should be deported, regardless of age at arrival, and accomplishments?"

"Jose Vargas, a Pulitzer-Prize winning journalist, has confessed that he not a legal resident, having entered the country with fake papers as a child. Do you believe he should be deported, or allowed to stay?"

TomorrowWillBeBetter said...

i know this state is not included in your survey but what about indiana. bush won in 2004 and obama won in 2004. and i also want to see who is winning in the senate gop primary. I know it is kind of random but, please poll Indiana. look at the prevoius post why cant you poll indiana or north dakota

Anonymous said...

Kind of OT, but do you guys plan on polling the special election in CA-36 sometime before election day? There's been talk that it's actually close. I don't quite believe it, but we really need a public poll there.

Anonymous said...

You posted something about an Oregon GOP primary poll on Twitter.

Will you release the full poll or did you do it for a private client ?

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Kind of OT, but do you guys plan on polling the special election in CA-36 sometime before election day?"

No current plans to.

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