Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Iowa predictions

Since it's the in thing to do, may as well put them out there.

Before I do though, I should say that you should really ask Justin Guillory, formerly of PPP and now of the Bev Perdue campaign, what his picks are. During the winter of 2004 we had a pool for picking the caucus in a US National Elections course we were in together at Carolina and Justin destroyed the rest of the class, the only person who predicted that Dean would tank so badly and Edwards would do so well. I finished, well, we won't get into that.

Nonetheless here are mine for tomorrow:

John Edwards 34
Hillary Clinton 29
Barack Obama 27

I think many Democrats both in Iowa and across the country prefer Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama but after eight years of Bush are going to make the safest choice when it comes time to finally make a pick. If the political climate in November is similar to what it is now I think Edwards has more than a 75% chance of beating any of the Republican candidates and possibly racking up a huge number of electoral votes. I think Clinton and Obama's chances are better than even too but if there's anything close to a sure thing in this whirlwind political season it's Edwards. I think Edwards then beats or comes very close to Hillary in New Hampshire, turns it into a two person race and wins easily from there.

I've actually been predicting an Edwards nomination for the entire campaign even as he got well behind Clinton and Obama in the polls at certain points so I'll look either wise or naive.

John McCain 27
Mitt Romney 26
Mike Huckabee 22

I know Huckabee has been doing well in the polls, especially in our most recent polling, but at the end of the day I think most voters, even Republican voters, will realize that he might be a little too nutty to trust the United States of America with. McCain, on the other hand, has been surging both nationally and in New Hampshire. I think a lot of caucus goers are going to remember how much they used to love McCain, think about all the flaws of Romney and Huckabee, and decide McCain deserves another chance and is certainly the strongest leader of the bunch. McCain then goes on to increase his margin over Romney in New Hampshire and walk to the nomination.

But I could be totally wrong!

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