SEIU has released a new poll showing Larry Kissell leading Robin Hayes 49-47 in the 8th Congressional District. It was actually conducted in mid-November but I just found out about it today from Betsy Muse at BlueNC.
One thing that might give you pause about it is that 55% of those surveyed identified themselves as Democrats in the poll while just 37% identified themselves as Republicans. That seems like a significant blue tilt for the district.
A couple other things from the poll though make me think the numbers are pretty legit. They asked people whether they voted for Bush or Kerry. The spread was 50-42 for Bush. The actual count in the 8th in 2004 was 54-45 for Bush. So the Bush lead among those polled is a pretty close reflection of what really happened that year.
They also asked folks who they voted for last year for Congress. 44% said they voted Republican and 42% said they voted Democratic. Again, that's pretty close, margin wise, to what the real results were last year.
So the 55% identifying as Democrats seems high but overall the data appears to match up correctly. I guess with the way the Republicans have run this country, it's just making folks in places like Montgomery County not want to identify with their party anymore.
Definitely good news for Larry Kissell.