Tuesday, January 22, 2008

North Carolina General Election Presidential Match Ups

John McCain 49 Hillary Clinton 42
McCain 48 John Edwards 42
McCain 52 Barack Obama 38

Clinton 46 Mike Huckabee 44
Edwards 46 Huckabee 44
Huckabee 49 Obama 41

Clinton 47 Rudy Giuliani 34
Edwards 50 Giuliani 37
Obama 43 Giuliani 43

Clinton 48 Mitt Romney 41
Edwards 49 Romney 38
Romney 45 Obama 43

John McCain would be the strongest nominee for President in North Carolina, leading match ups with all three Democratic hopefuls. But Democrats would do pretty well against any of the rest of the possible Republicans, as long as their nominee is not Barack Obama.

Some of the key findings:

-There are significant gender gaps in all of the possible match ups. The Democratic candidate does anywhere from 26-35 points better among women than men.

-Obama's weak performance is mostly the result of doing badly among voters of his own party. Hillary Clinton gets 72-75% of the Democratic vote in her four match ups, while John Edwards gets 68-73%. Obama, on the other hand, gets the support of just 59-66% of Democrats. A meaningful number of North Carolina Democrats aren't sure they'll vote for Obama if he's the nominee.

These numbers pretty much all point to a Democratic year in North Carolina. Even though they trail McCain, Edwards and Clinton look like they would do better than the Democratic nominee for President have done in the state since 1992. And even though Obama trails McCain by a larger margin, he's being hurt right now by Democratic voters saying they're undecided- for the most part those folks are likely to break his way when the election finally comes. It all adds up to good news for the Democratic ticket from the gubernatorial nominee on down.

Full results here.

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