Barack Obama 44
Hillary Clinton 24
John Edwards 19
A lot of polls are showing the race tightening in South Carolina, but we are not. We've done three surveys in the state now, and Obama has been at 44% in each of them. Hillary Clinton went from 31% in one we did two weeks ago to 28% in one we did earlier this week to now 24% in this one. John Edwards, on the other hand, is improving. He was at 15% on Monday and has gone up now to 19%, likely because some voters who are put off by the nastiness between Clinton and Obama are headed his way.
14% of the state's likely primary voters remain undecided. If enough of them break his way and Clinton's standing continues to fall it seems conceivable Edwards could pull off a second place finish tomorrow.
Obama continues to hold a 67-13 lead over Clinton among African American voters. Edwards is up to 4% after being at just 1% earlier in the week.
Interestingly, Obama leads Clinton by even more among women than he does among men in this survey. It's 46-24 with female voters and 41-24 with males.
Obama has a solid lead in every part of the state.
At this point anything short of a big victory would be a serious disappointment for Obama in South Carolina.
Full results here.