Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Tennessee Results

Mike Huckabee 30
John McCain 26
Mitt Romney 22
Ron Paul 6
Rudy Giuliani 4

With Fred Thompson out of the race, Tennessee Republicans are still going for one of their fellow southern conservatives. The reason Huckabee's doing better here than he did in South Carolina is a greater percentage of likely GOP voters listing moral and family values as their top issue when voting. It's just behind the economy in importance in the state, and 53% of respondents who said it was their main concern chose Huckabee.

McCain leads the field among voters who cited the economy or the war as their top issue. Immigration was fourth on the list and provided a good deal of support for Romney, as our surveys have shown in Florida as well.

Hillary Clinton 43
Barack Obama 32
John Edwards 16

The results here indicate that Obama may have some trouble winning southern states that don't have the high percentage of black voters that South Carolina does. He continues to get 60% of the support of black respondents, but trails Clinton 50-22 among white respondents. Obama should inch closer to Clinton though because a lot more African American voters remain undecided than white voters, and those folks leaned his way on election day if the South Carolina exit polls were accurate.

One key finding is that the strong support from women Clinton usually benefits from that wasn't there in South Carolina appears to be back in Tennessee. She leads Obama 47-28 with female respondents.

Full crosstabs here.

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