Monday, September 22, 2008

New Mexico President

Barack Obama 53
John McCain 42

Republican hopes of holding onto this state George W. Bush took in 2004 are dwindling as Barack Obama has opened up a double digit lead.

Since New Mexico has a heavy Hispanic population, all Barack Obama needs to do with white voters in the state is keep it somewhat competitive. Right now John McCain has only a 49-47 lead with them, and combined with Obama's 59-35 lead with Hispanics that adds up a strong overall advantage for the Democrats.

Sarah Palin is not playing well with New Mexico voters. 46% say her selection made them less likely to vote for John McCain, compared to 38% who say it made them more likely to do so. Among independents her disapproval rating is 47%, and Obama has a 51-35 advantage with that group.

Obama has a 20 point lead with women while leading men by a single point. He leads across all four age groups, including a 61-30 advantage with voters under 30.

Full results here.

11 comments:

Adam Terando said...

New Mexico is the new North Dakota. Time for McCain to pull out.

Brandon said...

I'll wait for a real pollster to poll NM.

Latest Rasmussen has McCain up 2.

Chris said...

Um Brandon..three other pollsters have numbers similiar to PPP's. Rasmussen is the only one showing anything close to a McCain lead.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/nm/08-nm-pres-ge-mvo.php

Adam Terando said...

oohh good one brandon. Latest Rasmussen from 2 weeks ago during McCain's peak while the 4 polls since then (not including Zogby internet) show Obama up an average of 8.25.

So by real pollster you mean, "only Rasmussen". Or "only a pollster that shows the result I want to see".

Gotcha. I hope the McCain campaign follows your advice. That's fewer resources available for CO, OH, and VA.

Brandon said...

Guys, you have to look at the internals in these polls. PPP can just pass off whatever crap they want and you will believe it.

Why does this sample have such a terrible party ID?

52% Democrats in this sample? LOL

Brandon said...

Too many hispanics, too many dems, too little whites.

Perfect recipe for a big Obama lead in the poll.

PPP succeeds again.

Adam Terando said...

LOL! Yes that's so funny! There couldn't possibly be that many Democrats in the state! How could I be so stupid! Well, what the heck, I'll go check the SoS's webpage just to be sure.
hmm..searching...searching...
Ah..Found it.

Ok, here's the link
http://www.sos.state.nm.us/pdf/CONG0910.PDF

This is going to be so great. It's going to show just how wrong and messed up PPP really is and...um...huh.

It says here that 50% of voters in New Mexico are registered Democrats and only 32% are republicans. Well I'll be! Turns out maybe PPP does know a thing or two about polling.

Brandon said...

Thats registered voters. PPP claims these are likely voters. Republicans show up to the polls, Dems do not.

2004 Exit Poll breakdown
D 40%/R 33%/I 27%

Somewhere around D+10 would have been a reasonable poll. D+20 is ludicrous.

Adam Terando said...

Yes considering Dems have national increased their partisan ID by 10% it's ludicrous to think there could be 10%+40% = 50% likely Dems in this sample. Absolutely ludicrous.

Anonymous said...

you guys are idiots. looke at surveyusa's internals. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=edc4d070-fb0f-43a8-b19c-6b32c3ad36f7 shows similar internals. that would make two polls who somehow got it wrong? not likely. someone have rasmussen's internals? i am not willing to fork over money to a rightwing pollster. but just as a confirmation, intrade has obama's chances as 67% vs 25% for mccain.

Steve in CA said...

Brandon...You are clinging to a lead within the margin from a poll taken at the height of the convention bounce. In that time, national polls have moved somewhere between 5-10 points.

You are...how to put this nicely?

You are reaching. Badly.

 
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