Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Ticket Splitters in Focus

There is a long tradition in North Carolina of voters choosing a Republican for President and a Democrat for Governor. This year though, there are an increasing number of voters planning to split their ticket the other way with votes for Barack Obama and Pat McCrory.

85% of North Carolina voters have made up their mind about who to support for both President and Governor. Within that group 41% are voting Republican for both offices and 38% are voting Democratic for both offices. That leaves the rest of the voters splitting their ticket in some form or other.

62% of those planning to vote a mixed Democrat/Republican ballot for those offices are supporting John McCain and Bev Perdue, while 38% are supporting Barack Obama and Pat McCrory. It seems safe to say based on past results that this is a significant increase in the percentage of folks voting Democratic for President but Republican for Governor.

Who are these new age ticket splitters? Compared to the rest of the population they are disproportionately suburban, middle aged, and somewhat surprisingly female. They are also predictably heavily concentrated in the Charlotte metro area. It will be interesting to see if the Perdue campaign's efforts to de-moderate McCrory on his home turf will prove to be successful- that appears to be the key to restoring the normally heavy balance of ticket splitters toward the Republican President/Democratic Governor variety.

2 comments:

Matt said...

I'm unaffiliated, but I consistently vote for the Ds. Color me not impressed with Bev so far. Still, I don't think I can bring myself to fill in the circle next to McCrory's name.

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