Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Ohio Poll

John McCain 48
Barack Obama 44

John McCain leads Ohio for the first time since the winter in a PPP poll, taking a four point lead after the race in the state was tied a month ago.

Obama is losing ground as undecided white voters in the state make up their minds. Last month McCain had an 11 point lead with whites while 13% remained undecided. The percentage of undecideds in that group is now down to 8%, and McCain's advantage with them is now up to 18 points.

If the breakdown of the electorate in Ohio is 85% white and 15% nonwhite, and Obama wins 93% of the nonwhite vote then he will need to capture at least 42% of the white vote to take the state. Right now he's not there. He'll need to either win back over some of the 20% of white Democrats in the state currently planning to vote for McCain, or turn out newly registered young voters at an incredible rate.

Full results here

11 comments:

Matt said...

Obama clearly seems to be down about 4 points in Ohio. There's remarkable agreement among the major pollsters on that. But, at least there are still a decent number of undecideds to reach.

And I suppose this result indicates he's down in VA as well according to last night's hint.

Brandon said...

Does this mean that VA poll was good news for Obama?

p smith said...

I have the same question as Brandon. Tom's teasing clue was so gramatically inept that either possibility is open.

If he meant that both polls were good for one campaign he should have said "both" not "each". Sorry to be a pedant

Rasmus said...

As a non-native speaker, and if I translated the sentence as I understand it, to German, it´s clear to me that he meant that one of the polls is good for Obama and the other one for McCain.
I´m just confused that the native speakers don´t see it like that.

Rasmus said...

And basically I wouldn´t say it´s that bad news for Obama to be down 4 in Ohio during a good polling cycle for McCain. It means he has still some paths open to win it. With some good debate performances that could swing back in some few days.... Remember New Hampshire? Always swinging back and forth?

Ranjit said...

Folks,

This is Ohio. In primaries, remember the voting pattern? It will continue into the elections in November. The group of People who voted for Clinton, will have hard time voting for Obama. If I were obama's campaign, I will shift more resources to Colorado,New Mexico and PA.

2 Weeks back I posted on Sarah Palin effort and I was ridiculed. Now it is clear that, white democratic women are crossing to vote for Sarah Palin. They are not clinton voters but moderate and conservative democrat women.

Matt said...

Ranjit, they have plenty of resources in those states. Ohio is too close/too big of a prize to ignore.

Ranjit said...

Matt,

I do think, PA is very close or McCain is doing better then Obama. Obama can win the white house without Ohio but if they loose in PA, the game is over. Again PA is another state, where Obama did not do well in primaries. So, they have to choose between OH and PA. I think, PA is the best bet.

Another state is Florida. The polls are very clear and they need to pull the resources from the state. Something is happening in MI. They better put more resources in that state. This is dejavu of 2004

Anonymous said...

ranjit you are dumb. Pa is not going to be close. Perhaps I should educate you on some numbers you appear to have forgotten or perhaps do not know about: They are called new voters. Over the past 5 months over 107,000 NEW Democratic voters were registered in PA. How many new Rep voters? Just 2,000! Tell me who is going to turn out this election ranjit, it aint no Rep surge.

As far as FLA, same phenom is going on. And the same is true in VA. I know you WANT Obama to pull resources from Ohio, but methinks you do not have his (as opposed to McCain's) best interest at heart.

Anonymous said...

Tom I quizzed you yesterday about how your polling of Ohio overcame the fact that half the state was without power for most of Sunday. I still have not gotten a response. I'd love to know given that your poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday. This same question applies to almost all the polls taken of OH this past weekend.

Ranjit said...

Anonymous,

Cool down!! This is a forum to share views and not brand people with names. Through out the country there is supposed to be a big surge in democrats registration. But both democratic and republican leaning polls give the same results. The race is close to call.

Regarding PA, show me a poll with 6 to 7 points difference between the candidate. On an average, it is hardly 1 or 2 points. In latest Zogby, McCain is leading by 5 points. So, I based my argument on that poll. By the way in Detroit, MI, there is a huge reduction in the number of residents and the city is in disarray. Meanwhile, Republicans are having good time with Sarah Palin in the rural side of MI.So, my argument was to put more resource in MI.Yes, I am biased but, I am giving you the facts.

 
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