John McCain 48
Barack Obama 44
John McCain leads Ohio for the first time since the winter in a PPP poll, taking a four point lead after the race in the state was tied a month ago.
Obama is losing ground as undecided white voters in the state make up their minds. Last month McCain had an 11 point lead with whites while 13% remained undecided. The percentage of undecideds in that group is now down to 8%, and McCain's advantage with them is now up to 18 points.
If the breakdown of the electorate in Ohio is 85% white and 15% nonwhite, and Obama wins 93% of the nonwhite vote then he will need to capture at least 42% of the white vote to take the state. Right now he's not there. He'll need to either win back over some of the 20% of white Democrats in the state currently planning to vote for McCain, or turn out newly registered young voters at an incredible rate.
Full results here