Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Virginia President/Senate Poll

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 46

For the fourth month in a row Barack Obama is ahead by two points in PPP's Virginia poll. He's dominating among black voters, has a solid lead with other non-white voters, and is holding onto just enough white voters at this point for an overall lead in the state.

Virginia is the only battleground state PPP has surveyed since the conventions where Joe Biden gets better overall reviews from the electorate than Sarah Palin. His favorable rating is a net positive of 11 points, with 38% of Virginians saying they're more likely to vote for Obama with him on the ticket and 27% saying they're less likely to. Palin has more folks- 42%- who say they're more likely to vote for John McCain because of her, but she also has a lot more folks- 40%- who say they're less likely to vote for McCain.

Her selection may have helped crystallize support for Obama with the Democratic base. 91% of Democrats in the state are planning to vote for Obama, an unusual level of unity for the party especially in the south. It's a good thing too because McCain has opened up a 51-34 lead with independents.

In the state's Senate race Mark Warner continues to move toward an easy victory, with his lead 57-33 over fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore this month.

Full results here.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Please, focus on Colorado, Michigan and PA every week + Bonus Virginia. Rasmussen has McCain up by 2 in Colorodo AND tied in PA. If Obama wins all of these 3 states, he wins the election because if he wins Colorado, also he wins NM.

COLORADO, PA, MICHIGAN and Virginia please.

Matt said...

What do you think explains McCain's sizable lead with VA independents? It's something I've noticed over the last several polls.

Anonymous said...

I had to check out this blog. I have a political analysis class and my prof was making fun of you guys the other day. You do know that PPP is considered a joke, right? I find it hard to believe that realclearpolitics give you guys any credibility at all. Pretty much every poll they have shows it tied or McCain up 1 or 2 points. What does PPP show? Obama up 4 of course lol. I guess you didn't learn anything from your PA primary predictions.

Anonymous said...

SurveyUSA also shows an Obama lead in Virginia (50-46) and Rasmussen has Virginia tied (48-48, +2 Obama since their last poll). Both polls came out this Monday. So I think this poll is quite accurate.

Anonymous said...

Hey stupid anonymous.

SurveySA has Obama up by 4 in Virginia( 6 points swing) and Ras has tied( Obama up by 2)

Make a update guys.

Tom Jensen said...

I'd be happy to talk to your professor about PPP and its accuracy relative to other polling companies. Unless he just prefers uninformed ramblings, which sounds like the case.

Tom Gordon said...

Hi Tom.

My question is similar to "matt's" question above: what do you think explains McCain's big lead among independent voters?

To show Obama up 2 points, I suppose that you are seeing that Democrats will vote in greater numbers, and with more loyalty, than Republicans. Is that a fair reading?

Thanks for your time.

Tom Gordon

Anonymous said...

tom gordon you might want to remember that in the south there is more registered dems than reps (yes surprising given the south's general red nature over the past 30 years) but it is true. Look at the exit polls for VA in 2000. Dems made up 41% of the voters and Reps 36 or 37%. Why Reps win in the south is because of a lot of crossover votes from Dems.

Anonymous said...

The polls are used from likely voter list of the past. This is one election that is nothing like the past elections.

WE Obama supporters don't do the polls, some hillary supporters participate, but we NEVER do.

Surprise, we're gonna kick ass like in 1992.

This one is good.

GOOOOBAMA!!

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Natural Stone said...

nice post really liked it.

granite said...

I'd be happy to talk to your professor about PPP and its accuracy relative to other polling companies. Unless he just prefers uninformed ramblings, which sounds like the case.

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