Friday, September 19, 2008

Virginia: Suburbs will decide

The race for the White House in Virginia will be decided in the suburbs.

In our most recent poll almost half of respondents described the community where they live as suburban, with 20% saying it was rural, 17% saying it was urban, and 15% saying it was a small town.

Two of those groups of voters have pretty clear preferences. Urban voters prefer Barack Obama 56-40 and rural voters go for John McCain 55-39.

It's closer in the small towns where McCain has a 48-44 edge and in the suburbs where Obama is up 51-45.

But with so much more of the state's population in suburban areas and the race so closely contested there it seems pretty clear that as go the suburbs so will Virginia.

These voters are about as politically divided as they could possibly be. 38% identify as Democrats, 37% as Republicans, and 25% consider themselves to be independents.

John McCain's Vice Presidential choice may hurt his cause with these voters. 43% say Sarah Palin makes them less likely to vote for McCain with only 38% saying she makes them more likely to vote for him.

These folks love Mark Warner, supporting him by a 60-32 margin, even better than his statewide lead.

With it looking increasingly possible that Virginia could determine the next President, there suburbanites may be the most important voting bloc in the country this year.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Tom I think you will find the same trends in CO, especially the suburbs of Denver in Arapahoe and Jefferson counties. CO looks to be the tipping point in this election. If Obama wins CO he will have probably won the election, he losses CO he will have a steeper hill to climb by having to count on OH, FLA, or VA to put him over the line (although admittedly his chances in VA are much better in comparison to OH or FLA).

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