Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Election Day Nuggets in Virginia

So there's been a lot of debate about what the balance of turnout will be in Virginia today between what we would describe as 'hard core' primary voters (those who turned out for one of the low interest contests in 2005, 2006, or 2007) and more 'casual' ones (those whose only primary voting experience since 2004 was the Presidential one last year.)

Our polls suggest a little more than 50% of the voters today will be those 'casual' ones. Since 150,000 people turned out in 2006 and we would expect most all of them to come out today, that would put overall turnout around 300,000. Most folks, however, seem to expect a lower turnout...perhaps even as low as that same 150,000 from 2006.

Using the data from our final poll, here's what the numbers would be in various turnout scenarios from 150,000 all the way up to 410,000:

Turnout

Deeds %

McAuliffe %

Moran %

150,000

46

19

26

170,000

45

20

26

190,000

44

21

25

210,000

43

22

25

230,000

43

23

25

250,000

42

23

24

270,000

42

24

24

290,000

41

24

24

310,000

41

25

24

330,000

41

25

24

350,000

40

25

24

370,000

40

26

24

390,000

40

26

24

410,000

40

26

24


There's not much doubt Creigh Deeds wins under any turnout scenario, although lower turnout would push his margin closer to 20 points and higher turnout would keep it more around 15. Turnout does have a strong ability to determine who finishes second...if it is under 250,000 votes Brian Moran will likely be the runner up while if it pushes up over 300k Terry McAuliffe is more likely to be. And of course keep in mind that we conducted most of the interviews for our final poll on Saturday and things could have shifted some since then, especially considering how fluid the electorate has been in this contest.

If I really had to make a prediction I'd guess Deeds wins with 45% to 29% for Moran and 26% for McAuliffe.

One other interesting note: under the low turnout scenario (150k) outlined above just 21% of the electorate today would be African Americans.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yea, but you are extrapolating off the same sample. If its 150K of hardcore Democrats, that's much different.

Tom Jensen said...

The 150k estimate is based on the responses only of people who voted in 2005, 2006, or 2007 and assumes that no 2008 only voters turn out. The subsequent estimates work in the 2008 only voters in increasing proportions.

Tyler said...

Before looking at your prediction, I came up with almost exactly the same numbers. Unless the late attacks on Deeds really change things, I bet you'll be right. Thanks for your excellent coverage of this race.

Terry said...

Once again, you guys pretty much nailed this one. Yet another example of why you guys run one of the most reliable and accessible polling companies in the country.

 
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