Friday, October 30, 2009

Corzine and the 'Grudging Vote'

Whether Jon Corzine gets reelected or not one thing is for sure: he is not a very popular dude.

Our five New Jersey polls have found 37, 36, 33, 33, and 32 as his favorability ratings for an average of 34.1%.

Let's just assume Chris Daggett ends up winning 10% of the vote. That means the winner for Governor is going to have to get 45%. For Corzine that means getting roughly 17% of the vote from people who don't like him.

That's certainly not outside the realm of possibility. Our last poll showed him getting 12% of what I would describe as the 'grudging vote'- we don't like you but we'll vote for you anyway.

There's no doubt the biggest problem for Corzine in our poll this week was his getting only 67% of the Democratic vote, and that's very much a product of a third of voters in his party having a poor opinion of him. But if enough of those folks decide in the closing days to hold their nose and vote for him because the alternative's worse- or even to just stay at home- Corzine could still pull it out.

1 comment:

Ryan said...

This one is going to be close. Chris is holding on strong as the election closes in, a rare thing for a Republican in NJ.

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