We'll release the numbers on the gay marriage ban. It pretty much literally could not be any closer and will all come down to who turns out. Judging by the approval rating we found for Obama in the state it looks like it will be a more conservative leaning electorate than what the state saw last fall. It could be determined by the age distribution of the voters- do young people come out or do senior citizens dominate the electorate?
Fascinating numbers for Olympia Snowe. Her approval rating with Democrats is 25 points higher than with Republicans- in fact her approval numbers with Democrats are better than they are for many of the Democratic Senators we've polled on across the country this year. There doesn't seem to be a huge amount of support for switching her parties though. We'll also look at Obama and the health care issue.
The contest to be the state's next Governor is wide open with none of the candidates very well known. One thing that may be contributing to Republicans having an opportunity here are extremely weak approval numbers for John Baldacci. With a huge number of candidates we just had to pick a couple Democrats and Republicans to test to get a general idea of the lay of the land and none of the match ups we looked at showed anyone getting better than 34%.