Thursday, October 1, 2009

Obama in Virginia

Barack Obama's approval rating with likely voters for Governor in Virginia comes down at 45% approving and 49% disapproving this month.

You might look at those numbers and wonder where the utility in his campaigning for Creigh Deeds is, but this has really become an election that's going to be determined by mobilization more than anything else. There is virtually no one who voted for John McCain last fall planning to vote for Deeds so it's not like Obama campaigning is going to turn off people who might have crossed over to vote Democratic this year. There is likewise almost no one who voted for Obama last year planning to vote for Bob McDonnell this year.

Millions of dollars are being spent on the race but there is pretty much no persuasion going on- Democrats are voting for Deeds, Republicans are voting for McDonnell, independents who voted for Obama are voting for Deeds, and independents who voted for McCain are voting for McDonnell.

That means it's going to be all about who shows up and if Obama can get his people to come out for Deeds that's what's going to matter in terms of his impact on the race.

There's been little change over the last month in how Virginians look at Obama's plans for health care reform. 51% say they're opposed with 41% in favor. It was previously 49% opposed and 38% supportive.

Mark Warner remains the most popular politician in the state with a 53/29 approval rating. Jim Webb has his best numbers yet in a PPP poll at 47/39.

Full results here

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just weird Tom.

SurveyUSA has Obama at 49/48 (though its crosstabs are about the same as yours). The biggest difference seems to be you have Obama at 35% with indies while SurveyUSA has him at 42% with indies.

mikelow1885 said...

A poll much worse for Obama than Ras. So Obama has no chance to carry Virginia in 2012?

Perhaps a lot of social conservatives who sat out last year are coming back; I agree that further analysis is required.

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