Here are some hard numbers on turnout issues for Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey.
Let's estimate 2,000,000 voters in Virginia. Our poll this week found the electorate there splitting 48-44 for McCain based on reported voting behavior for last year.
That means 960,000 McCain voters and 880,000 Obama voters.
Last year Obama won 1.96 million voters and McCain won 1.725 million.
That represents a decline of 1,080,000 Obama voters from last year to a drop of only 765,000 McCain voters.
Let's estimate 2,200,000 voters in New Jersey. We found the electorate there splitting 51-44 for Obama.
That means 1,120,000 Obama voters and 970,000 McCain voters.
Last year Obama won 2.22 million votes and McCain won 1.61 million.
That represents a decline of 1,100,000 Obama voters to only 640,000 McCain votes.
Maybe those numbers will improve some over the weekend- and Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine certainly aren't the best candidates- but if that pattern continues on into next year Republicans will win back the House. Democratic voters need to wake up or the consequences will be serious in 2010.