Public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it.
With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close.
One determining factor could be the age distribution of the electorate. Senior citizens often dominate in low turnout elections and they're strongest in their support of rejecting the law with 54% planning to vote for Question 1 to 40% opposing it. Voters under 65 oppose the referendum by a 50-46 margin but they'll have to come out if they're going to combat the influence of the more conservative leaning older voters.
Opinion on the issue is predictably polarized along party lines but perhaps not as much as you would expect. 25% of Democrats support rejecting the law while 23% of Republicans oppose doing so. There's a higher level of party crossover on this question than there is for instance on President Obama's approval rating in the state where only 16% of Republicans give him good marks and just 13% of Democrats think he's doing a poor job.
Interestingly white voters in the state oppose the referendum by a 49-47 margin, but nonwhite voters support it 55-35. That's a small swath of the electorate in Maine but it's enough to create an overall tie in these numbers.
It's going to be a close one!
Full results here