Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Tomorrow's Virginia Poll

For months our discussion of the Virginia Gubernatorial race has focused on the issue of enthusiasm- and the lack of it among Democratic voters.

Here are some very telling numbers from the poll we'll be releasing tomorrow:

-56% of Bob McDonnell voters are 'very excited' about casting their ballot for Governor this fall. Only 34% of Creigh Deeds supporters are.

-29% of Deeds voters are 'not very excited' about voting this fall. Only 16% of McDonnell's express that sentiment.

And keep in mind this lack of enthusiasm among Deeds voters is among those who are planning to vote anyway. But you can see with those numbers why many Democrats/Obama voters just aren't coming out at all.

We're looking at a McCain +6 electorate this year in a state that was Obama +6 last year. There's no path to victory if that stays true through election day. We'll see how much good the visits from Obama, Bill Clinton, and other leading national Democrats do in the last few weeks but there is a lot of ground to make up.

Poll out in the morning.


Anonymous said...

Let's see if your poll is an outlier again.

Party ID numbers will be telling.

Riley said...

So, if the electorate in your sample is McCain +6 and the Survey USA sample is McCain +1 showing McDonnell with a 19-point lead, will your poll show McDonnell in the +20s?

Web Statistics