Friday, January 22, 2010

2012 Presidential Poll

For the first time in one of our monthly polls looking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election Barack Obama trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins.

Mike Huckabee has a 45-44 advantage over Obama, aided largely by a 44-38 lead with independents. There continues to be no evidence of any negative fallout for Huckabee after murders of police officers committed by an ex-Arkansas inmate whose sentence he had commuted. His 35/29 favorability breakdown is actually slightly better than it was in November before that incident.

Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44-42. His favorability is 36/32, and he's the most popular Republican among independents (41/32). Romney actually matches Huckabee with GOP voters this month and gets over 50%, ending a trend in his numbers that had seemed to spell difficulty for snagging a Republican nomination.

Sarah Palin trails Obama 49-41 largely because she loses 14% of the Republican vote to him, making her the only one of the GOP candidates we tested who Obama could get double digit crossover support against. At the same time Palin continues to be the most well liked potential GOP candidate within her party- at 71% favorability. Her problem appears to be that the Republicans who don't care for her will go so far as to vote for Obama instead of her.

Finally our blog readers voted for David Petraeus as our wild card Republican this month and his numbers come out as a mixed bag. He has the largest deficit against Obama, trailing 44-34. But at +13 his net favorability is better than the President or any of the other Republicans we tested. The problem for him is that the numbers break down 25/12- 63% of voters in the country don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion. Who knows if Petraeus would actually have any interest in going into politics, but if he did he would be introducing himself to many voters for the first time.

Is it a big deal that Barack Obama trails Mike Huckabee by a single point in January 2010? Not really- we're mostly doing this poll every month so that we can have the tracking data over time. But it does reflect the reality that Obama has work to do in winning back over some of the folks who voted for him in 2008.

Full results here

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

So I see this is registered voters and not a likely voter screen, and the pool of responses had Obama beating McCain by 1 point historically.

Doesn't that mean you're potentially spotting Huck and the others 6 points?

mark said...

Uh, this is PRIOR to America seeing Huckabee DESTROY our Liar-in-Chief in a debate of the facts vs lies and broken promises. Huckabee CRUSHES Obama in 2012.

Anonymous said...

it would be great if you were able to poll Obama and Glenn Beck in hypoetical matchup next month

Anonymous said...

All of this polling is so ridiculous at this point. 2012 is a lifetime away in politics and you can bet Obama has more than a few tricks up his sleeve.

No Republican will beat Obama in 2012 -- despite all the wishful thinking from hacks like Ham. It's rather sad to see how desperate the GOP has become.

As for Palin...what a joke!

Anonymous said...

This poll had 39% self-described conservatives and 14% self described liberals. The rest were moderates. Against those odds, I'd say Obama is doing pretty well.

The Dean said...

Why couldn't you keep Ron Paul in the polling? He didn't do too badly in the last poll. I don't see Petraeus as a realistic nominee.

Anonymous said...

Obama has been a total failure for America. "Change You Can Believe In" LOL

Anonymous said...

It means more and more people are getting too embarrassed that they voted for Obama.

Rasmus said...

It more likely means that people don't want to admit they voted for Obama and/or that people who didn't vote at all now claim that they voted for McCain.

I don't want to search for ages right now, but I remember looking at a 1964 poll of registered voters where the sample claimed to have voted for Kennedy 62-33 over Nixon or something like that, because Kennedy's fav was like 90%.

Anonymous said...

Great poll. Really, the best candidate for the Republican nomination is Huckabee. This guy... I mean, he gives speeches without a telemprompter he is that bright and quick witted! He would make an incredible President and make America proud. Well, done. Thank you for sharing this poll with us. You are helping bring in your own way to bring greatness back to America. God bless you.

Anonymous said...

This is the 9th Straight 2012 Presidential Poll Win by Governor Mike Huckabee.

The momentum keeps building for Huckabee. Thousands of Huckabee Fans from 50 States and nearly 500 Counties are expanding across America at a blistering pace.

Google 3 Simple Words: Huckabee Fan Club

9) PPP Poll (01/22/10)
* Huckabee 45%, Obama 44%

8) PPP Poll (12/10/09)
* Huckabee 45%, Obama 46%

7) Iowa 2012 Presidential Poll (11-23-09)
* Huckabee 39%, Gingrich 32%, Romney 32%

6) USA Today Poll (11/05/09)
* Huckabee 71%, Romney 65%, Palin 65%

5) CNN Poll (10/28/09)
* Huckabee 32%, Palin 25%, Romney 21%

4) Rasmussen Poll (10/15/09)
* Huckabee 29%, Romney 24%, Palin 18%

3) PPP Poll (09/24/09)
* Huckabee 41%, Romeny 39%, Palin 38%

2) AOL Poll (10/01/09) ~ 200,000 votes
* Huckabee 25%, Romney 22%, Other (14%)

1) Value Voter Poll (09/19/09)
* Huckabee 28%, Romney 12%, Pawlenty 12%

Anonymous said...

Can you imagine the American people electing a fundamentalist minister President. Separation of Church and State would a think of the past. If you want to hand the country over to the relgious right, this would be just the ticket. Perish the thought. Besides, I predict Obama will turn the economy around by 2012 and easily win reelection.

Anonymous said...

You're crazy if you think Obama can turn his Presidency around. He is too self-absorbed, delusional, and convinced his failing policies are right for America. This guy is out in 2012, we've only seen the beginning of his failures.

Anonymous said...

Why would America elect a washed up governor who hasn't done anything except run for office unsuccessfully and write a book? Also GOP base won't send a Morman to the convention as it's nominee. In any case Obama is going to win in 2012. Sorry to tell you all but he had a GREAT week. I'd love to see his poll numbers next week...

Anonymous said...

Obama is a one-term president. If he doesn't earn the distrust of America, then his Congress surely will! Ron Paul is was right about this economic meltdown for years, and I believe his prediction of the collapse of the dollar is going to happen as well. All of those billions created or borrowed and we still are in the same mire as before.

Anonymous said...

RON PAUL 2012! Time for a true constitutional conservative

Anonymous said...

Please poll Iowa. The Iowa 2010 primaries are coming up in a couple weeks plus they are early primary state for 2012.

Anonymous said...

Put simplt-Obama is a wolf in sheeps clothing, totally inept, self absorbed and an ARROGANT LIAR.
PERIOD!!!!!!!!!

Wallace said...

THIS ARE THE REAL POLLS. DON'T LET THEM FOOL YOU.

HERE IS THE PROF:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCjhfYIy7KA&feature=player_embedded

Primordial Soup said...

Neocons beware... RON PAUL 2012!!!

Anonymous said...

HAhahaha...This is a Joke right? I don't believe for a second those results.Ron Paul all the way.JUst smart People will vote for Ron Paul.

Anonymous said...

why is Ron Paul not mentioned... stop sensoring Ron Paul oh my god..
he wins all the polls and no one mentions him.. total manipulation !!

Anonymous said...

If I may please;
American speaking to American, please I beg, look into Mr. Ron Paul’s issues and why he takes, as he always has, the positions he does.
Mr. Ron Paul’s 2012 platform creates jobs!
Strengthened dollar means increase in literal productivity do to the attractiveness of having “trust redeemable at any bank in the USA.” An increase in purchasing power due to a re-regulation of gold to back our paper dollar, would cancel inflation almost immediately.
Lower fuel prices, lower food prices, lower retail prices + strengthen dollar = more spending power per dollar!
That “more spending power” goes right back into the economy!
Imagine how the above could help Your Family in the next 4 years?
Imagine how the above could help Your Country in the next 4 years?
Regan said, “what to ask is am I better off now than 4 years ago. Is food cheaper now than 4 years ago? Are taxes lower now than 4 years ago?”
With Mr. Ron Paul’s 2012 platform, You, it and they will be.
Please please please, give a serious look into what Mr. Paul’s platform represents.
Long ago JFK called for the Nation to come together to touch the moon. 50 years ago exactly, we struggle to maintain even something as simple as a budget. Time for a non-bipartisan change please.
Constitutionally, legislatively, and morally, Ron Paul has no equal. His 22 year voting record speaks for itself.
Please help give America back Her Constitution.
Ron Paul for President in 2012.
Thank You

 
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