Thursday, January 28, 2010

Looking some more at SC-5

I don't know how much offense Democrats are going to be playing this year if they end up having to fight hard to keep the Senate seats they hold in Indiana and Wisconsin, but for the second month in a row we have some numbers showing Jim DeMint surprisingly vulnerable.

Last month we found DeMint leading a generic Democrat statewide by just a 47-38 margin and in our poll of John Spratt's Congressional district this week we found DeMint's lead over a generic Democrat at just 45-41. SC-5 is slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole but either way this seems like more confirmation that DeMint's inherent advantage right now is in single digits. DeMint has very little crossover support from Democrats.

I don't know if the resources will be there to make DeMint nervous this fall or not. It would have been real interesting to see what would have happened to DeMint if he'd been on the ballot in 2008 and Democrats had fielded a strong candidate- I think that could have ended up being a very close race similar to what happened in Georgia. But timing in politics is everything and that's why few from the Republican Senate Class of 2004 have much to worry about this year.

Lindsey Graham's approval is split at 41/41. Confirming our past polling he's unusually popular with Democrats (31%) and unusually not popular with Republicans (51%).

Finally the poll suggests Mark Sanford's popularity may have declined further in the wake of his wife's divorcing him. A month ago he was at 36/51 statewide, and now he's at 29/63 in SC-5. It's always good to be cautious in extrapolating district level results but a 19 point difference in the spread suggests something real happened.

Full results here


Timothy said...

Yes, democrats, pour money to defeat Jim DeMint in South Carolina. You have nothing to worry about in CT, CA, NY, IN, WI, CO, PA, ND, NV, AR, IL, or DE. Trust me. Nothing to worry about.

hoosierguy said...

From a Hoosier: I don't think Bayh has much to worry about now that Pence has decided to go another direction. He has a big war chest and no really big name Republicans to run against him. Of course, now that the Supreme Court has come down on the side of the corporations, whoever runs against Bayh could have corporate money that Bayh will not have, so that could change the equation. Not enough union money to blunt the corporatists if they choose to make Bayh a target either.

Christian Liberty said...

Since Demint brilliantly proclaimed that Obama's HealthScare bill would be his Waterloo, history has vindicated Demint to be a courageous moral leader and visionary tactician. America will be eternally grateful that Demint helped save this country from the tyranny of Obamacare.

Capt Elaine Magliacane said...

You should have polled the folks in Spratt's district to see if the Obamacare voting liberal progressive Democrat will have a job in DC or SC after November.... Jim DeMint is a man of honor a rare thing in DC, very rare indeed.

Anonymous said...

Why didn't you test any of the candidates running against DeMint?

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