We haven't had a lot of democracy around here lately in deciding where to poll because January has been quite a month, with a lot of stuff coming up that we just had to do rather than letting you choose. So to rectify that we're going to try something a little different. Please give us your suggestions over the weekend about where we should poll next weekend- statewide polls or house districts- and we'll pick finalists, let you vote, and do the top two for the week of February 8th.
As usual here's the stuff we're most interested in- races where there hasn't been a lot of polling, races where an incumbent may be more vulnerable than the conventional wisdom suggests, and obviously races that will be competitive.
Fire away and we'll get finalists up Monday.
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113 comments:
Maine Governor's race!
IN-SEN
Ohio Gov & Sen
FL-8 would be fun: how is controversial Rep. Alan Grayson doing compared to his less known foes? And do voters appreciate having a "Democrat with guts"? And since this is a swing district polling for Governor, Senator, and Obama's approval could be interesting as well.
VA-5 with goode as an independent, SC-2 to gauge movement from your poll in spring, KS-4 to see if Raj Goyle's money and name ID is doing anything for him, NH-1 to see Guinta's strength, and TN-6 to see Herron's strength.
GA-Gov
VA-11, Perriello and Nye are getting all the attention in VA. Plus the will he/won't he of Boucher, but anything short of cinematic disaster will see Boucher return and VA-2 & VA-5 already lean GOP and with a headwind neither incumbent is likely to return.
The far more compelling race is the DC Suburb/swing district held by Conolly and facing two solid GOP challengers. A peak at the landscape here will be very informative on the '10 prospects of other incumbents like Kanjorski & Murphy(in PA) & Maffei (NY).
Go with places others aren't polling. Would anyone be able to challenge the incumbent in the senate races in Oregon, Washington, South Dakota, Iowa, Vermont, Kansas, or Arizona?
Florida and California senate and gov races
House: NJ-3(Adler), ID-01(Minnick), or NH-01(Shea-Porter).
Senate: IN-Sen(Rokita vs. Bayh), AR-Sen(Boozman vs. Lincoln), WA-Sen(Reichart/Rossi vs. Murray), AZ-Sen(McCain vs. Hayworth, and the general as well)
Okay that's enough. :)
If you want a really off-the-wall one... NY-SEN (Schumer). Marist had him dropping seven points in the last three months, down to 52.
Or maybe Bennett in Utah: that one is shaping up to be maybe a GOP in-fight.
I think that another NY-23 poll matching up for November's Doug Hoffman in a straight matchup with Bill Owens with no third candidate would be able to show where things are up to for Tea Party candidates and specifically him.
I'll suggest OK CD 2 again (held by Dan Boren, D-Muskogee).
It's a race where there hasn't been any polling, and a race where an incumbent may be more vulnerable than the conventional wisdom suggests.
Boren has attracted several GOP opponents (Dan Arnett, Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen, Charles Thompson) and an Independent (Miki Booth), and rumor is that former congressman Brad Carson, who held the seat before Boren, might be considering running again (many Democrat leaders are upset with Boren's conservatism).
Boren is assumed to be unbeatable, but he has never had a real opponent (ever), and the feel on the street is that he's not as popular as he once was.
PPP would be the first to poll this district... the only Democrat-held district in Oklahoma.
I haven't seen much as far as the Colorado's Senators race and Michael Bennet lately.
COLORADO!!!!!!
Please.
New York has the most competitive elections this cycle as Rs only have 2 out of 29 seats in congress, so NY deserves at least 1 poll of a congress seat where there wasn't any polling.
Maryland - may not be as blue as everyone thinks. O'malley and Hoyer.
If the GOP is going to win back a majority in congress, they'll probably have to pick up about 5 seats in NY, so I think that a poll in upsate NY would show where things are holding there.
Please Poll NY-20! Scott Murphy barely squeaked by with a few votes in a special election in March before the landscape changed, so it would be interesting how he's faring.
We NYers deserve some polling on competitive congressional races in our state.
We must see how things are in upsate new york, b/c if GOP is doing very well there, where they lost many seats recently, that means that they're going to do well outside of the South too and even win back congress.
VT-Gov still without polls!
I second FL-08 -Grayson- and would love to throw in Montana.
Prime battleground for 2012, potentially vulnerable GOP House at-large incumbent (DailyKos had his favorables at 46/45 in March 09), and you could test him against Tester for 2012, and the favorables of Schweitzer and Baucus.
Wexler's seat in Florida and Abercrombie's seat in Hawaii.
NY-23! Will last year's GOP disaster repeat with Doug Hoffman straight up against Owens, or things changed. I think that it will be a perfect gauge!
VA-5 possible General Election match ups
PA - 08
and
PA - 07
IN-Sen- See if Bayh is vulnerable to challenges by SoS Todd Rokita or Lt. Gov Becky Skillman
Washington-
How are Patty Murray's approvals holding up? Is Dave Reichert truly a strong challenger for her? Or former NFLer Clint Didier, who played college football in WA.
VA-5- Perriello voted for the big three agenda items last year, health care, cap and trade, and the stimulus. He also won the seat on a razor thin margin in '08. I'd like to find out if he has any kind of a chance in this national climate. Polling on the GOP primary there would be fascinating to see as well.
IN-Sen- With the Rasmussen poll showing Evan Bayh vulnerable, it'd be nice to get either a confirmation or contradiction of that poll. Even though Pence isn't running for Senate, the race looks a lot less safe for Bayh.
AZ-Sen- The new Rocky Mountain Poll showed McCain's approval at 40%, he's also facing a potentially tough primary with JD Hayworth. Is McCain actually vulnerable in the primary? In the general election? You could also poll the governor's race again. The last poll showed the Democrats doing fairly well, though now with the shift in national climate, that may no longer be true even with an unpopular incumbent in Jan Brewer.
Alabama. Again ... Is Davis making a usually conservative state blue in the governors race?
And is Shelby, who is running for reelection ... Is that race as non competitive as everyone thinks? We certainly got numbers with DeMint that were surprising.
And how about the competitive AL-02, where bright may lose in a conservative district ? And Parker Griffith in AL-05. Poll sparks to see how well he does. Then we can know a upper base for DEMS in the 5th
Also try Dino Rossi if you do WA
New Mexico and California
I'm very interested in seeing where Diane Denish stands in New Mexico governor's race next year. It would be also good to see what Obama's approval ratings are currently in NM and what they think of issues such as health care and the stimulus.
California is necessary because Boxer may be in the fight of her life if Tom Campbell is the nominee. I'm interested to know the status of the race, Boxer's approval ratings, and whether the analysts at PPP think that it is within the realm of possibility that Boxer could be unseated
How about another poll of a possible Republican incumbent in danger? To further see if this year is just anti-democrat or anti-any part incumbent.
So how about...
WA-08
NJ-07
NJ-02
GA-SEN, GA-GOV
AL-02 (Bright), AL-05 (griffith), AL-GOV
FL-GOV (How is Sink doing), FL-SEN (Crist as a Dem), FL-08 (Grayson)
NM-GOV: (No polling on Denish, is she surviving the Democratic meltdown?)
KS-04: (Goyle raises a lot of money but it is really useful?)
KS-03: Is this seat lost with the KS City Mayor as a Democrat running in it?
VA-5
MICHIGAN!!! There's been a lot of gubernatorial polling, but barely any presidential approval polling. How popular is Debbie Stabenow, since she'll be on the ballot with Obama in 2012? Mark Schaeur and Peters? Schaeur barely beat an ultra-conservative representing a traditionally Michigan moderate Republican district that Obama beat McCain in. A tea party approval poll would be interesting. Most of the populism in Michigan is on the left, but we have a strong Christian right in the western part of the state, and it would be interesting to see how blue collar whites who are recoiling from Obama in the midwest like the anti-union, anti-auto bailout tone of the tea partiers. I would guess Obama's approval rating is probably stronger with whites here than in Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.
CA-44. It was one of the closest house races in the country in 2008 that nobody saw coming. It makes me sad this race hasn't got much attention.
IN Sen: "A former Republican congressman, John Hostettler, has already indicated he will challenge Bayh. In that match-up, it’s Bayh with a three-point edge, 44% to 41%." Bayh also only got 44% against Pence's 47%. Bayh also only got 45% against a freshman state senator, who only polled 33%. (Rasmussen Jan 25)
IN-8: Hostettler lost a tough race in the Democrat wave of 2006 against a Democrat who deliberately ran as a pro-life fiscal conservative. Then this "pro-life" "conservative" crafts a "compromise" abortion amendment for the House health care bill, instead of just letting the horrid bill die. For a Democrat to so flagrantly violate his campaign promises (and for what? socialized medicine??) should logically be unforgivable in a "bible belt" rural Indiana district. Since Ellsworth won 61% in 2006 and 64% in 2008, his vulnerability would speak volumes about what conservatives and independents think about Democrats who say one thing to their constituents... and then go and vote for Pelosi's radical left-wing agenda.
Coakley, who was at least honest about how she would vote on health care, lost a state that Obama had won 62%-36%. Ellsworth, who misrepresented himself as a "pro-life" "conservative" before sponsoring a pro-abortion "compromise" to move Obamacare along, can make no such claim about his honesty. As a candidate who ran as a "pro-life" "conservative" but became Pelosi's lapdog, Ellsworth is exactly the kind of dishonest, corrupt dealing candidate that independents are turning against nationwide.
The Texas Governor Race, esp. the Republican primary. How is Debra Medina faring after two debates against two well known politicians, Kay Bailey Hutchinson & Rick Perry?
New Hampshire. We got two house races and a senate race. you could check in on the gov. also (but he is in good shape for reelection)
Illinois. see if there are any primary bounces for Giannoulias, Kirk, Hynes or Quinn, and the Republican Gov. nominee.
Also, might be worth polling IL-10 to get an early look at a tossup race, IL-11, and IL-14.
i would like to get confirmation of the PA-15 poll .
Try CA-03, which could be a good race for Dems
Oklahoma Congressional District 2 - the last federal seat held by a democrat in either the House or Senate from the state of Oklahoma.
MO Skeleton
long time Democrat in Republican district and liberal voting record
VA-5, and please be sure to poll the GOP Primary too...
OH-01. See if the blue wave from 2008 is holding out or not.
Check out some potentially-vulnerable Republican districts. Open IL-10 seat, CA-03 (Dan Lungren), NE-02 (Lee Terry), PA-15 (Charlie Dent), and WA-08 (Dave Reichert) are all being seriously contested by Democrats. The open KS-04 seat would be interesting too.
Arizona! How would McCain do against Hayworth? How would Hayworth do against a Dem?
The more interesting would be know about the races not polled still:
VT-Gov
MI-Gov with Dennis Archer and more first level democrats.
LA-02 finding frontrunners
PA-06
WA-08
Perlmutter in Colorado or Bayh in Indiana with the Secretary of State (R) included.
Or, as per my usual request, PA 15 with Dent vs. Tea Party activist Benol in the Primary then Dent vs. Callahan vs. Independent Tea Party Candidate Jake Towne and Benol vs. Callahan vs. Towne.
How about some PA congressional seats? This state is likely to have a lot of active, competitive races - as many as 7 or 8? - along w/ the Specter spectacle and gov. race.
I would pick PA-11: Kanjorski. His opponent is well known, so the residents are likely to be familiar w/ both sides, pre-primary. I might offer that the relative data would underscore how strong/weak other senior democrats in Congress may be, in a tough environment/competitive district.
How about NY-20?
Scott Murphy beat Jim Tedisco by 700 votes. It would be interesting to see a Murphy/Tedisco poll, now that Obama's honeymoon has worn off.
I'd like to see Florida-8 polled. Is Grayson secure because of a lack of top-tier candidates?
Also, IN-Sen with Rokita, Michigan 7th and 9th (poll 9th with Bouchard).
PA-12
NJ-12 Rush Holt vs. his two prospective opponents, Mayor Mike Halfacare and Scott Sipprelle. He had a well publicized intense town hall and it can show if the Brow effect has spread through other Blue States.
KS-04, PA-07
Goyle is an awesome candidate, and we will see what is going on with Bryan Lentz in the open seat in PA.
NC-13, please. Brad Miller is going down. Trust me.
Washington's 3rd CD primary. Open seat in a swing district, plus the added intrigue of of Washington's top 2 primary system where all the candidates are on the same ballot with the top 2 advancing to the general regardless of party.
I would also like to see a MN-Gov poll but with 20 some candidates and 3 major parties there are probably to many permutations.
Vermont's governor's race! there's a five(!) way democratic primary, three big dogs, Sec of state Deb Markowitz, former LT Doug Racine and senate president pro temp. Peter Shumlin. 2006 lt-gov nominee Matt Dunne and Sen/. Susan Bartlett are also running. General election number's against LT governor Brian Dubie should also be included to get the full details of the race.
The places likely to get my cash this year:
TX-17 - Edwards
PA-08 - P. Murphy
I like the VA-5, VA-2. and ID-1 ideas as well.
I want to see Charlie Crist polled as a democrat, I also want a poll of him in a primary against Meek and the others. Or try polling something we have yet to see, like Vermont gov or Grayson. Also I would like to see some more Bayh polling.
I think it's impossible to predict 2010 congressional map without comprehensive polling of a district or 2 in upsate NY, there are many in play and said to be vulnerable according to pundits.
I would like to see the Floida General Senate too, with Christ as a Democrat attached. Also Colorodo, Pennsylvania, Indiana with Pence still included, Arizona general, primary, and each one showing both Hayworth and McCain as independants/third party. I would particularly like the florida and Arizona elections, but all would be great.
Arkansas-SEN with Bozeman and Beebee and Halter
AR-02: Now that Snyder has retired what is going on there?
AR-01: Replacements for Marion Berry
AR-03: Winnable for the Dems with the right seat?
AR-04: How is Mike Ross doing?
In-Sen
Indiana Senate to see How Todd Rokita,Mitch Daniels, or Becky Skillman match up against Evan Bayh.
Jim Hynes, CT-04
I second LA-02. Is Cao really DOA? Or does Obama calling him one of his favorite Republican's help him? Is Cedric Richmond really as heavily favored to win the Dem primary as everyone thinks?
Could also throw in a NOLA mayor poll if it is going to be released in time (first election is Feb. 6, with run-off in March unless Landrieu gets 50.1% in the primary)
I'm interested in WA polling,too, but I'd rather see Murray compared to declared candidates than to big name Republicans who have declared they are not candidates. Reichert is firm that he is running for re-election to Congress and Rossi has said he would turn down a draft.
I'd like to see polling about WA 3rd Congressional race where Baird's retirement leaves an open seat in a swing district.
Hello! Personally, I would like to see PA-15, CA-8, NM-3, Texas Governor Republican primary, or oklahoma CD-4 republican primary
Thank you! keep up the great polling!
Indiana Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
PA Governors and Texas Governors Race!
Texas Governor's Race!!
Medina
Perry
Hutchison
Louisiana Senate Race between declared candidates: Vitter - R, Melancon - D, Gentile - L, Daniels - I.
Texas gubernatorial election
Tea Partier Takes Texas Governor's Race By Storm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jackson-williams/tea-partier-takes-texas-g_b_442900.html
governor poll-
texas or south carolina
senate poll-
indiana, arizona, new york, california, or illinois (post-primary)
Texas Republican Governors race. Perry is vulnerable, no one wants Senator Hutchinson in Texas, and the outsider is a liberty loving Constitutionalist who has a chance of winning (her name is Medina).
1) IN-Sen
2) KY-Sen
3) TX-Gov
TX gov race looks like it's getting interesting with Debra Medina campaign growing leaps and bounds also it is very topical so makes sense for PPP to poll there and the poll will get a lot of attention for the firm.
Indiana senate, Republican primary + how they do against the Dems.
Also the Texas Governor race with Debra Medina & Rick Perry would be interesting to see.
IN-Sen, KY-Sen, TX-Gov
MO-Senate (Blunt, Carnahan)
PA-Senate (Specter/Sestak, Toomey)
Chris Widener just won the first Republican Straw poll for US Senate in WA. You should poll him against Murray. And poll Murray against any other un-named candidate.
TX gov. race!
IN SENATE RACE
New Mexico's 3rd district. Adam Kokesh is really inspiring us !
NM-3, this district is bigger than the states of CT and KY combined so it should be interesting.
Texas gov race
Pa Gov Race!
I agree with the Texas Governor's Race!! I find this dynamic fascinating.
Medina
Perry
Hutchison
New Mexico, 3rd District
Texas Gubernatorial Race:
Debra Medina
Rick Perry
Kay Bailey Hutchison
NM-3 (Lujan vs Kokesh / Mullins)
How about New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District.
They have an incumbent Democrat expected to take it; but you also have an tea partier style, iraq war vet that has been very active in getting out meeting the voters.
I don't think any polling has been done there yet.
MO-SEN.
Was the Rasmussen poll right in that Blunt has finally moved ahead by a significant margin ?
Also MO-04
Vermont governor's race w/ Dennis Steele included.
Kentucky Senate
IN-Sen, KY-Sen, TX-Gov
I like Vermont gov what is the alone not safe race without polls still, and Florida sen including Crist as democrat.
Please poll in New Mexico's 3rd Congressional district! The race between grassroots candidate Adam Kokesh and the Dem incumbent looks to be a good one!
Also the Texas Governor race! Medina, Hutchison, and Perry in the running.
How about:
TX-Gov
NM 3rd congressional disctrict
Something interesting going
on in Pa.GOP Gov. race.
Can see a big surprise. Do
a poll on them.
How about Missouri-4th ... you know, Ike Skelton's seat. I'd like to see how he's doing after his votes on cap & trade and the failed stimulus. MMX FLEX spotlighted this campaign and believes that Ike might be facing his toughest challenge since 1982 (redistricting year).
You should check poll the special election in Hawaii's First Congressional District with Charles Djou. According to numerous reports, Djou is the Republicans best candidate for this district in years.
CT 5th CD. It has a good GOP primary (Calguri and Berneir) and it would be nice to see how Chris Murphy fares against each of them
New Mexico 3rd District, please. Adam Kokesh, a Ron Paul Republican, is running in a traditional liberal state. Does he have a shot?
NM-3
New Mexico's 3rd District, please!!
I would suggest a poll of the NM-3 race. There's an interesting contest shaping up in New Mexico's District 3, with Iraq veteran and Liberty Movement candidate Adam Kokesh looking like a good bet to win the Republican nomination.
I'm very interested in the
1. Texas governors race
2. New Mexico's 3rd District to see where Adam Kokesh stands
New Mexico third would be my favorite, where Adam Kokesh has been running a well-funded but unconventional bid against Ben Ray Lujan.
Second pick is Oklahoma fourth, Tom Cole versus RJ Harris. RJ is better funded than many opponents Cole has had since 04 and is running as a tea partier in the primary. Some internal polling has indicated it is competitive.
So NM-3 and OK-4
New Mexico, 3rd District
PA Governor Republican Primary
NM-3 Congress race!
PA Gubernatorial Race!
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