Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Massachusetts Governor Poll

Deval Patrick's still leading in his bid for reelection as Governor of Massachusetts. But the numbers don't look particularly sustainable for him.

Patrick is at 29% to 27% for Charlie Baker and 21% for Tim Cahill in what currently looks like the most likely match up. But among the undecideds in that three way scenario Patrick's approval rating is just 7%, with 72% of those voters disapproving of his job performance. Those folks may end up with Baker or they may end up with Cahill but either way 30-35% is looking like a peak for Patrick right now and that makes his chances at reelection pretty tenuous.

Baker leads Cahill 39-27 with voters who disapprove of Patrick's job performance. If that vote consolidated more one way or the other that would be the end of the small leads Patrick's been showing.

Patrick's approval rating sits at just 22%, with 59% of voters in the state disapproving of the job he's doing. He has the support of only 8% of Republicans and 12% of independents, but perhaps most worrisome for him at this point more Democrats (40%) express disapproval than approval (36%) of him.

That he continues to lead in the horse race may have a lot to do with the current anonymity of his top opponents. Baker has only 30% name recognition (17/13) and despite serving in statewide office Cahill's is only 46% (24/22). Christy Mihos is better known at 55% but it's not a good thing for him with 35% of voters viewing him unfavorably to 20% positive. In a three way contest with Mihos Patrick gets 28% with Cahill coming in second at 25% and Mihos in third at 21%.

Because of Patrick's weak standing and the recent retirements of vulnerable Democratic incumbents in other states we also tested Secretary of State William Galvin to see how he might do in a Gubernatorial campaign. At a 36/18 favorability ratio Galvin is considerably more popular than Patrick but posts similar numbers in match ups against Cahill and Baker/Mihos, largely due to limited support from African Americans in comparison to Patrick.

If Patrick's approval ratings stay where they are right now he will not be reelected, regardless of the presence of a strong third party challenger. He's a good deal less popular than recently deposed New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine. For Democrats to hold onto this office they either need voters to change their minds about Patrick or nominate someone else.

Full results here

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

as a mass resident and hard-core Dem it's time for Patrick to go. He really has underperformed.

Rasmus said...

Tom,

how did you manage to poll two different elections in the same poll who aren't on the same day? Shouldn't a Special Election poll and a generic midterm poll have different likely voter screens?

Aaltobartok said...

I'm a hard-core liberal Obama democrat making hundreds of calls for Martha Coakley this weekend, who is likely to support Charlie Baker for governor.

That's sort of all you need to know :-)

Baker's NOT conservative (in any other state he'd be a democrat) and is making a big deal about supporting Obama's education initiatives. He actually has really interesting ideas about the state and its innovation economy.

I have never voted for a republican before in my LIFE! But Baker will probably be my first.

yaguara2003 said...

I am a Democrat who stupidly voted for Martha Coakley and should have voted for Scott Brown, I regret my mistake and wont make it again. Tim Chaill is part of the problem, and well Mihos is kind of crazy with his ideas and such. Baker is the best centrist type of candidate to pull the two parties together and bring in the indp. vote. He has some great ideas to turn the state around and I say give him a shot. I am switching to independent and I am voting for Baker in 2010 for governor. Its also great he picked an openly gay Lt. Governor, which will bring in the gay sector of the vote as well and it shows he is open to gay rights.

Josh said...

Patrick passed landmark education reform, something none of his predecessors can say. Similarly he made gay marriage legal in Massachusetts. What all of you have said is "I want some one to do exactly what Patrick has done, just someone other than Patrick." Why change something that doesn't need fixing? While all the other candidates are saying he can't do this, or can't do that, Patrick is getting it done. Do your research.

Sue Biermann said...

I didn't vote for Patrick and from what I have seen it was a great choice. I think his views on immigration and welfare are 100% wrong. We need to stop allowing the illegals to get benefits that are there for the US citizens. The illegals need to go back where they came from. When they want to become legal and do the right thing then they can come back. As far as welfare, we need to change that NOW. There are too many using the system. I've heard of people out there that are working a full time job and collecting welfare at the same time. There are women who keep getting pregnant by different men to stay on welfare and not have to work. We need to make those irresponsible people accountable for their wrongful actions and get them off of welfare. That system was created to help people get on their feet and then stop the benefits, but instead our government has been lax as ususal and let the system become what it is today. I have not seen one thing that government has controlled work. They screw up everything they touch. Obama is the worst manager I have ever seen. He can't get anything right and that includes the healthcare. Patrick you are right there with him and I hope you lose in the election. We need people are for the people and not for their own agenda. Patrick you work for me, remember that!!!!!

 
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