Deval Patrick's still leading in his bid for reelection as Governor of Massachusetts. But the numbers don't look particularly sustainable for him.
Patrick is at 29% to 27% for Charlie Baker and 21% for Tim Cahill in what currently looks like the most likely match up. But among the undecideds in that three way scenario Patrick's approval rating is just 7%, with 72% of those voters disapproving of his job performance. Those folks may end up with Baker or they may end up with Cahill but either way 30-35% is looking like a peak for Patrick right now and that makes his chances at reelection pretty tenuous.
Baker leads Cahill 39-27 with voters who disapprove of Patrick's job performance. If that vote consolidated more one way or the other that would be the end of the small leads Patrick's been showing.
Patrick's approval rating sits at just 22%, with 59% of voters in the state disapproving of the job he's doing. He has the support of only 8% of Republicans and 12% of independents, but perhaps most worrisome for him at this point more Democrats (40%) express disapproval than approval (36%) of him.
That he continues to lead in the horse race may have a lot to do with the current anonymity of his top opponents. Baker has only 30% name recognition (17/13) and despite serving in statewide office Cahill's is only 46% (24/22). Christy Mihos is better known at 55% but it's not a good thing for him with 35% of voters viewing him unfavorably to 20% positive. In a three way contest with Mihos Patrick gets 28% with Cahill coming in second at 25% and Mihos in third at 21%.
Because of Patrick's weak standing and the recent retirements of vulnerable Democratic incumbents in other states we also tested Secretary of State William Galvin to see how he might do in a Gubernatorial campaign. At a 36/18 favorability ratio Galvin is considerably more popular than Patrick but posts similar numbers in match ups against Cahill and Baker/Mihos, largely due to limited support from African Americans in comparison to Patrick.
If Patrick's approval ratings stay where they are right now he will not be reelected, regardless of the presence of a strong third party challenger. He's a good deal less popular than recently deposed New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine. For Democrats to hold onto this office they either need voters to change their minds about Patrick or nominate someone else.
Full results here