Over the rest of this week we'll finish releasing our national poll, see where John Spratt stands in SC-5, and take a comprehensive look at the Illinois political landscape.
Here's what to watch for:
Tuesday:
-Primary numbers for Governor and Senate in Illinois. Dan Hynes has been closing on Pat Quinn in recent polling...can he take the lead? And is anyone getting separation on the GOP side? The Senate numbers confirm the conventional wisdom.
-What is the most trusted news source in America? We looked at national perceptions of ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News
Wednesday:
-General election numbers for Governor in Illinois...a Rasmussen poll last month showed Dan Hynes more electable than incumbent Pat Quinn...will that trend hold? And how good are Republican prospects for retaking the office this fall?
-The meat of the John Spratt poll- what's his approval, what do his constituents think of Obama and health care, and where does he stand relative to challenger Mick Mulvaney.
Thursday:
-General election numbers for Senate in Illinois...is Mark Kirk getting carried along with the Republican wave nationally or is the state holding to its usual Democratic leanings?
-And the 'other stuff' from the South Carolina poll- looking at where Mark Sanford, Lindsey Graham, and Jim DeMint stand in what is perhaps the closest thing South Carolina has to a 'swing district.'
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3 comments:
Are you separating NBC News from MSNBC? There is a distinction between Brian Williams and Keith Olbermann.
Although I'd like to see Spratt go, I expect your poll will show him doing decently enough, given the climate. He's built up a lot of goodwill in 30 years.
We show Spratt at only a 21.1% chance of losing so I imagine that your poll will show him with a comfortable lead. The other choices you offered are rated:
Mollohan (WV-1) 11.2%
Salazar (CO-3) 23.8%
Heinrich (NM-1) 51.2%
NM-1 would have been a more interesting choice since we feel it is a toss-up. By way of reference, we had Scott Brown at 61.7% just before you took your first poll.
While it is easy to find polling data for Senate races (other than WA and WI), finding some for House races is quite hard. Obviously our take on the House races is based on a mathematical model which only offers a relative strength rating on Democrat incumbents or their open seats. We are very interested in finding some polling data on some of these races to help us tweak the model.
You can find the House races at: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=1130. The Senate races are at: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=317&Itemid=1155. You can reach us at: editor@marstonchronicles.info. Your help would be greatly appreciated.
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