Saturday, January 16, 2010

What we're seeing in Massachusetts: week 2

Here's what we saw on day 1 of our Massachusetts poll:

-The electorate is becoming more Democratic. Last weekend we found it at Obama +16 and now we see it at Obama +20. So all the efforts to get the party base more engaged in the election are paying off.

-Balancing that out to some extent though is that we're now seeing Brown win about 19% of the Obama vote, in comparison to 15% on our poll last week.

-Both candidates have seen a pretty large increase in their negatives over the last week, reflecting the increasingly nasty nature of the campaign.

-Even though the race is too close to call overall, 58% of voters think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while only 41% say the same of Coakley. That speaks to voter perceptions that Brown has run the superior campaign and again you have to wonder how different things might be if Coakley had acted with a sense of urgency ever since the primary.

If today's interviews hold up through tomorrow I don't think we're going to be able to make a clear prediction of the winner in our final poll- still too close. Expect the final results tomorrow night between 10:30 and 11.

17 comments:

Brandon K said...

Approximately what percentage of the interviews were done today?

Blue State Republican said...

So was Brown or Coakley ahead in polling thus far?

MA said...

OK, I'll take an unclear prediction.

Anonymous said...

If Scott Brown picked up 4% among an electorate that is now +20% Obama (vs. before at +16% Obama), that would give him an extra 1% of support (effectively moving him up to around ~49%). This assuming that McCain voters are voting the exact same way as they were in the last poll.

Net, the only way that this poll is now even (or if Coakley has a lead) is that if there are less undecideds than in the last poll.

I am guessing by the note, that it is within 1% or even. If this is the case, it all really depends on the turnout model being used by PPP.

What is the turnout model being used. Are "unsure whether to vote" people being counted, or are only "definitely will vote" people being counted?

I also bet you that many of the political independents are avoiding the phones right now, because of all the calling and robocalls (+5 calls a day). I am guessing this could also make the actual results different than what we see in polling.

Greg said...

Reading between the lines, I think youre hinting at Coakley taking the lead, if only by a sliver.

Anonymous said...

This is the first time I have visited your site. I cannot tell you how refreshing to read a liberal site that is nearly spin free, which is even more remarkable given that you seem to be personally highly partisan.

Nate Silver at his best is like that. Hear's hoping that this was not an anomalous posting. If it isn't, you have a conservative fan.
Steve Guffey

Westwoodnc said...

"-Balancing that out to some extent though is that we're now seeing Brown win about 19% of the Obama vote, in comparison to 15% on our poll last week."

Jesus Christ. I'm guessing that the increase in Obama voters turning out really simply means that this will be a high turnout (for a special) election, one that is slowly approximating the 2008 electorate.

Marv said...

What was the actual one night count?

Harry Joe said...

Based off the prior poll internals, this makes it seem like Brown might gain half a point? Really depends if you're seeing a drop in McCain voters or those who say they didn't vote for either McCain or Obama. If it is the latter, it might be closer to a point.

That's of course, if Brown is holding the same edge among McCain and non-Obama/McCain voters.

Either way, it doesn't seem like much movement... at least for now...

Ergo, nothing has really changed since the last poll.

Anonymous said...

We need absentee ballot data! Ask questions if u must!

Geoff said...

The Schilling gaffe is getting a lot of play .... i predict Sunday's results will show this.

Debra J.M. Smith said...

If Scott Brown Gets In, Socialized Health Care Is OUT! Praise the Lord, this may be our answer to prayer!

Martha Coakley is a Monster!

Read this page on her: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Coakley

When there, scroll down to "Controversies." And read things about her.

I know that times are hard right now, but if you're even able to just give $5.00 to Brown's campaign, you could help Brown win and be part of history. It all adds up, and he could blast even more ads on Monday. The election is Tuesday.

Just type in an amount in "other" - https://www.icontribute.us/scottbrown/

Debra...
www.InformingChristians.com

Anonymous said...

Utilizing the data provided, it looks like the poll will be about 50-49 Brown.

Anonymous said...

10:30-11pm...which time zone?

Anonymous said...

This waiting is torture.

Any hints? I need a fix to feed the habit.

Anonymous said...

Well, looking over the other polls that have come out today, the only movement has been towards Brown as undecideds make up their minds. With bad weather forecast for the Boston area on Tuesday,I don't think Coakley has much going for her.

John said...

Waiting...

 
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