Gallup has its 50 state approval numbers out for 2009.
There were seven states that Barack Obama won where his approval has slipped below 56%. Three of them are pretty darn predictable- North Carolina, Indiana, and Ohio- all of which saw extremely close races in 2008.
Another three of them though are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada which Obama won by commanding margins of anywhere from 9-15 points. That's yet another clear piece of evidence of a Mountain West problem for him and Democrats at large, and it's being manifested in Harry Reid and Michael Bennet's status as two of the four most vulnerable incumbent Senators. I really hope we get around to polling New Mexico soon and see what impact all of this is having on the Governor's race there.
I still think the long term demographic trends in that region will make it more Democratic over time- but declarations of 'permanent' blue status after the 2008 election were a little premature.
The seventh state Obama won where he's under 56% is New Hampshire, which may help to explain why Paul Hodes is having so much trouble.
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Without republican candidates for New Mexico has not sense pull this state. Republican Party in New Mexico is done, and they know that, only S Pearce can be competitive.
That is not the case at all since there is an excellent Republican candidate in NM-1, Jon Barela, who has the full backing of the national GOP. This district was represented by Heather Wilson who was an excellent Republican legislator. We give Steve Pearce a 59.3% chance of winning and Jon Barela a 52.8% chance. things are tougher in NM-3 but no district is safe after Massachusetts. We give the Republicans (either Adam Kokesh or Tom Mullins) a 13.7% chance. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144 for a list by state.
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