Friday, February 5, 2010

Where we are

You might think from what's going on in the national political climate that voters are getting disgusted with Barack Obama and leaving the Democratic party in droves, but that's actually not the case.

Only 13% of people who voted for Obama in 2008 now disapprove of him and only 10% of Obama voters are planning to support Republicans for Congress. Those two relatively small shifts are enough to put the President's approval rating in negative territory and to give the GOP a lead on the generic ballot.

It really doesn't take very many voters changing their loyalties to create a seismic shift in terms of number of seats lost. The GOP will make gains this year but they will likely be tenuous because just as a small number of voters turning toward them is creating the image of an onslaught this year, a small number going back toward the Democrats by 2012 could create the same image back in the other direction.

There may be a perception of a huge shift in American public opinion right now but its really a small one, albeit one that could have huge implications for control of Congress in the years ahead.
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4 comments:

Brandon said...

Ha, I guess the mantra is "just keep telling yourself that." Hey, whatever makes you feel better.

February 5, 2010 at 11:22 AM
Mike said...

13% and 10% seem like relatively small numbers, but when you apply that to the roughly 70 million people who voted for Obama. That's a lot of people.

February 5, 2010 at 12:44 PM
The Original Donald said...

The bigger issue is gonna be what the results of the census is.

In my home state of Connecticut all 5 Representatives are Democrat, and if CT loses a seat(a unlikely prospect), it's gonna be interesting how's gonna be left out.

February 5, 2010 at 3:01 PM
Anonymous said...

Are you kidding? Suggesting that what is currently happening in the world of politics will have little or no affect on what will happen down the road (2012 and beyond) is, to put it mildly, absurd. The fact of the matter is that, what is going on in respects to the fate of the Democratic Party in November of this year and in the foreseeable future, as well as Barack Obama's chances for reelection in 2012 are looking rather bleak - if not disasterous. In fact, I fully expect a virtual bloodbath in November - and I don't think it's going to get any better for Obama and friends in 2012. Clearly, you are totally oblivious to the facts, in a complete state of denial or just plain stupid. Perhaps - just perhaps, I can enlighten you. There is a political revolution going on out here/there. And it is growing by the day - not only in numbers, but also in strength and momentum. What's driving that revolution is a whole bunch of disenfranchised and angry folks and are an intrinsic part of, what is commonly being referred to as the "Tea Party" - and, in reality, are made up of a whole bunch of smaller grass roots organizations. According to a relatively recent Rassmussen poll they are more popular than both the Republican and Democratic Parties. Surprise - surprise. The "Tea Party" doesn't align itself with either the Republican or Democratic Parties. It's "membership" are essentially core conservatives than not - most of whom are simply fed up with with the political status quo that NOW permeates Government (in general). Their impact on Government; of late and of the future is and will be quite profound - guaranteed! Sadly for the Democrats, they (the "tea Party") will side with and vote for definably more conservative Republican candidates in the primaries, but will, in almost all cases, vote Republican (or anti-Democrat) in the general elections. Without further elaboration on the matter, I'll close by saying that, If I were a person running for any kind of political office, I certainly wouldn't want a (D) in front of my name. It would most likely be my demise - at least politically.

February 7, 2010 at 7:09 AM

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