Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Burr's Primary Challenge

Richard Burr got himself a primary challenge yesterday from Asheboro City Councilman Eddie Burks...does he actually have anything to worry about?

His approval numbers among Republican voters have tended a little to the low side...over the course of our last four polls his average approval with them is 63%. We tend to see something higher for an incumbent Senator within his own party.

At the same time there are also very few Republican voters who dislike Burr- an average of 13% over our last four polls.

As is the case with the overall electorate, there is a fair amount of indifference to Burr among Republican voters. That means for a primary challenger to get anywhere against him would take a message that could get grassroots activists fired up and money flowing in. Burks, however, seems more focused on Burr's lack of visibility than any sort of ideological crusade. That's unlikely to be enough to get primary voters to turn out an incumbent Senator.

I doubt Burr will match the 90% Elizabeth Dole got in the Republican primary two years ago against a little known opponent, but I don't think he has anything to worry about either.

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