Our state by state polling though is finding that in states with a competitive 2010 race- defined as one where we've polled a Senate or Gubernatorial race in single digits since November- there's been a much larger decline in Obama's popularity. Across those eight states his approval has dropped by an average of 12 points.
The biggest decline in Obama's approval has been in Nevada where he won by 12 points in 2008 but where we now find him at a -8 spread. Harry Reid's troubles may have as much to do with Obama as they do with him. The other two states where Obama's seen the biggest decline have significant Hispanic populations as well- New Mexico where he's dropped by 18 points and Texas where he's dropped by 17 points.
If Obama's popularity has fallen at a faster rate in the 2010 battleground states it's obviously going to be harder for Democrats to win in them this fall.
Here's the full data:
| State | Obama 08 Margin | Obama Approval | Shift |
| | +12 | -8 | -20 |
| | +15 | -3 | -18 |
| | -11 | -28 | -17 |
| | +14 | E | -14 |
| | +25 | +12 | -13 |
| | E | -9 | -9 |
| | -16 | -24 | -8 |
| | -9 | -3 | +6 |
4 comments:
This post assumes that a national poll and an aggregate of 50 single state polls that are weighted by population would have the same result.
I'm thinking for quite some time that this isn't true. I might do some research on that some time.
I'd love to see the crosstabs on South Carolina. Are you over-sampling the Midlands (Columbia area) and Pee Dee (Florence) regions?
In other words, Obama's approvals have fallen the farthest where people have been paying the most attention to politics.
I think it is a big jump to compare election results to approval ratings - many voters may disapprove of Obama but vote for him anyway. It is comparing apples and oranges.
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