Monday, February 22, 2010

Texas Poll Preview

Two interesting things from tomorrow's Texas poll:

-Debra Medina actually leads the race with people who think she's not a truther- with 33% to 32% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 29% for Rick Perry. But with voters who think she is a truther, or that she might be, she gets only 7% to 51% for Perry and 30% for Hutchison. What portion of the electorate do each of those groups comprise? We'll tell you tomorrow.

-In yet another sign that there may really be no difference between the 'Tea Party' and the Republican Party, 74% of GOP primary voters there say they 'support the goals of the Tea Party movement.' It's basically the whole party sans the moderates...if centrist Republicans split off and did their own thing that might really shake up American politics. More and more though it looks like the 'Tea Party' movement is nothing more than a group of GOP voters who gave themselves a special name.

12 comments:

Medina is definitely a 9/11 truther said...

Watch this video if you still have questions about Debra Medina and whether she is a 9/11 truther: http://www.youtube.com/user/poorkay2010

Joselito said...

Let's hope that Texans voters are smart enough to realize that it was a smear job by Beck and that she is not and never will be a truther.

Anonymous said...

Our county in early voting is showing 28% have never voted in a primary in Texas. Would that make your poll have a 28% error amount?

Anonymous said...

Not valid statistics. That's like saying 75% of college students drink beer so beer drinkers are nothing more than college students.

Brandon K said...

Are you doing Texas again this weekend?

Anonymous said...

Not really...what it's saying is that if you are polling "likely Republican voters" in this poll, then you are missing at least 1 in 4 voters that are ACTUALLY voting in the Republican Primary. These polls would thus be accurate within their margin of error for the 75% that historically voted in the GOP Primary.

So, what you need to know is how the other 25% are leaning. My guess would be that since 25% had NEVER voted in a Primary before, that they probably weren't motivated to come out and support two career politicians like Rick and Kay. Most of them are probably supporting Debra Medina. Certainly not all...but I'd bet most.

That means you need to multiply the polls numbers by .75 and then add how much of that 25% you think each one will get to the three candidates to get a better guess of where things really lie.

For instance, if Debra Medina is polling at 24% in the poll that comes out tomorrow, then she is really hitting 18% (24% *.75) of the total voters casting votes and may have up to 25% added on top of that for a potential vote turnout of 43%.

Jennifer said...

Many counties are, indeed, showing that over 25% of the early voters have never voted in a primary before.

This would mean that, if Debra were receiving 100% of those votes, using the 24% she received from the previous PPP poll - Debra would have almost 45%.

John Sanzone said...

Waiting impatiently :)

Anonymous said...

I would hope that people would use their own judgement about Debra Medina instead of blindly following Beck or anyone else. Here's Debra:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q73c5DEyTXU ; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dmx92TFv-g ;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARyhX_srQvY

Anonymous said...

Medina a truther? Please...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3OTXSK09fs

Anyone saying Medina is a truther at this point is either a total moronic fool, or in the tank for someone else.

Michelle said...

Medina is NOT a truther - http://www.medinafortexas.com/getPost?p=272

doohap said...

Where are the new numbers????

 
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