Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Context in NC-11

Republican Jeff Miller, running against Heath Shuler in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, is touting a new internal poll showing him down 'only' 46-34 to Shuler.

We polled the 11th District in late May of 2006 when Shuler was challenging then incumbent Charles Taylor. Shuler already led Taylor 46-42 at this point in the race. Those are the kind of numbers you see for a strong challenger. Barring some major development in the race between now and November Shuler should be just fine.

5 comments:

Thunder Pig said...

I'd like to see you guys poll North Carolina races in general, and NC-11 in particular.

DBL said...

PPP polled Kay Hagan down 9 points on July 27, 2008 and she ended up winning by 8.5 points. Survey USA had Jeff Merkley down 12 on August 4 and he won by 3.5. Being down 12 at any point is bad, of course. If this is a Republican year there will be a few candidates who come from that far back.

Anonymous said...

so says the biased NC Dem Polling Firm PPP

Anonymous said...

As you know - but choose to ignore because it does not suit your purpose - the incumbent's level of support is more important than the generally lesser-known challenger.

The poll with Taylor pulling 42% presaged a final result of 54%-46% for the challenger, with Taylor only picking up 4 points.

This poll shows Shuler with 46%; if he picked up 4 points from now to November, as Taylor did, the result would be a 50%-50% nailbiter.

Obviously Miller has a way to go to introduce himself to the electorate and needs $ to do so, but the race is absolutely winnable for him.

wt said...

Vitter and Burr are vulnerable, but Shuler and Etheridge aren't? This just seems like pick-it-as-you go reasoning depending on the political party that you hope to win.

 
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