Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Context in NC-11

Republican Jeff Miller, running against Heath Shuler in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, is touting a new internal poll showing him down 'only' 46-34 to Shuler.

We polled the 11th District in late May of 2006 when Shuler was challenging then incumbent Charles Taylor. Shuler already led Taylor 46-42 at this point in the race. Those are the kind of numbers you see for a strong challenger. Barring some major development in the race between now and November Shuler should be just fine.


Thunder Pig said...

I'd like to see you guys poll North Carolina races in general, and NC-11 in particular.

DBL said...

PPP polled Kay Hagan down 9 points on July 27, 2008 and she ended up winning by 8.5 points. Survey USA had Jeff Merkley down 12 on August 4 and he won by 3.5. Being down 12 at any point is bad, of course. If this is a Republican year there will be a few candidates who come from that far back.

Anonymous said...

so says the biased NC Dem Polling Firm PPP

Anonymous said...

As you know - but choose to ignore because it does not suit your purpose - the incumbent's level of support is more important than the generally lesser-known challenger.

The poll with Taylor pulling 42% presaged a final result of 54%-46% for the challenger, with Taylor only picking up 4 points.

This poll shows Shuler with 46%; if he picked up 4 points from now to November, as Taylor did, the result would be a 50%-50% nailbiter.

Obviously Miller has a way to go to introduce himself to the electorate and needs $ to do so, but the race is absolutely winnable for him.

wt said...

Vitter and Burr are vulnerable, but Shuler and Etheridge aren't? This just seems like pick-it-as-you go reasoning depending on the political party that you hope to win.

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