Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Sizing up the SC Runoff

Our polling suggests Gresham Barrett will pick up most of Henry McMaster and Andre Bauer's supporters in the South Carolina Republican Governor runoff. But he won't do it by nearly a wide enough margin to make the race competitive.

On our final primary poll McMaster supporters said they would go for Barrett 45-32 over Nikki Haley. Bauer's voters said their second choice would be Barrett over Haley by a 44-28 margin.

Those numbers suggest that when everyone makes up their minds Barrett will pick up about 60% of the also ran vote to 40% for Haley. That would create an overall runoff result of Haley around 60% and Barrett around 40%. The only way Haley's going to lose this thing- or that it's even going to be close- is if a new scandal breaks that can actually be proven.


Closer To Home said...

Yes, but it doesn't tell us how many of his, and Bauer's and McMasters' supporters will just stay home after having lost badly.

What is the fall off in voting support for lost causes?

Anonymous said...

Jensen, I wanna see a North Carolina runoff poll, I hope Elaine is getting close to 50%.

Anonymous said...

Or, unless Sarah Palin decides to spend some time in SC and personally crush Barrett like she would an ant on the sidewalk.

Greshem. I don't think Sarah likes you and remember, she doesn't always play nice.

Glen Tomkins said...

What's the likely voter model?

Isn't turnout likely to be less, maybe much less -- most important, imponderably less -- for the runoff than for this last election? And if turnout is substantially different, it won't be expected to distribute evenly across groups with different propensities to vote for either candidate.

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