Our polling suggests Gresham Barrett will pick up most of Henry McMaster and Andre Bauer's supporters in the South Carolina Republican Governor runoff. But he won't do it by nearly a wide enough margin to make the race competitive.
On our final primary poll McMaster supporters said they would go for Barrett 45-32 over Nikki Haley. Bauer's voters said their second choice would be Barrett over Haley by a 44-28 margin.
Those numbers suggest that when everyone makes up their minds Barrett will pick up about 60% of the also ran vote to 40% for Haley. That would create an overall runoff result of Haley around 60% and Barrett around 40%. The only way Haley's going to lose this thing- or that it's even going to be close- is if a new scandal breaks that can actually be proven.