Friday, July 30, 2010

A Bit of Good News for Obama in New Hampshire and California.

While the President’s approval numbers are dropping to record lows around the country, in California and New Hampshire Obama’s approval ratings are rising.

In New Hampshire his approval numbers are up but remain relativity steady. In April voters disapproved of Obama 48:47. This month New Hampshire voters approve of the President 49:47.

The news is even brighter in California.

In May, California voters approved of Obama 49:42. This month Californians approve of the President 54:39.

Obama is drawing increased support from minority groups, but this may be more of a rebound rather than a gain. Over the last two months Hispanic voters’ support for the President has increased by almost ten points. Representing 20% of California voters, Hispanic voters are significant actors in Golden State politics. Their shift in support could have to do with Obama’s reaction to the Arizona immigration law, initially received poorly by Latinos. The President’s reinvigorated commitment to immigration reform may be the reason he has regained support amongst the Latino community in California. We saw a drop in Hispanic voters’ support across the country in May and in spike in July—it would be no surprise if the same trend was occurring in California.

There was also a pretty large increase in Republican supporter for Obama. Last month 12% of Republicans approved of Obama, this month 20% of California Republicans approve of Obama’s job in Washington. This is undoubtedly a trend we are not seeing around the country, and I am unsure of why it is occurring in California.

Things aren’t so bad everywhere for Obama after all.


Anonymous said...

Hey Tom, I know you ahve to get tired of people asking this, but what kind of voter model do you use again? I can't remember for sure if its likely or registered.

Anonymous said...

What is the point of this blog post? I would like to see PPP produce some analysis that isn't slanted. Most of the blog posts analyze the data from the prospective of Democrats. I think for credibility's sake blog posts like this one that are clear partisan hand-wringing do not do PPP much good in the area of credibility and trustworthiness.

The national narrative: Barack Obama's approval continues to slide nationwide.

PPP: Barack Obama's approval isn't sliding in X states, but its actually going up!!!!!

The Interesting Times said...

Anonymous, don't forget the electoral vote.

It's entirely possible for a Presidential candidate to lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote because certain states leaned his way (that's why George W. Bush won in 2000).

Benito said...

The Republicans are so funny, when the economy is good you say let’s all celebrate “Cinco de Mayo, my brothers” but when the economy is down “it’s all your fault, you damn immigrant”. When most Americans (with Latin America roots) go to the polls this November we will remember that the GOP has gone on a nationwide rant in proposing and passing several anti-immigration legislation and have continue to blame us for the flat economy or worse. We will remember who stands with us and who stands against us, so trying to stop it now is somewhat funny, but go ahead, you will not change our minds. Is does not help that the GOP has recently attacked the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Your hate made you do it, in November; you will reap what you have sown.

Web Statistics