We've got seven choices for where we'll do our two state polls this weekend. We'll do the top two vote getters unless neither of them has a 2012 Senate race- in that case we'll do the top vote getter overall and the top vote getter that has a 2012 Senate race. And as always if someone votes 300 times for the same state we will throw that out of the mix. If a single person's going to dictate where we poll, it's going to be someone at PPP.
The choices are:
-Arizona. Other than Missouri this may be Barack Obama's best chance to flip a state he lost in 2008 and it also provides perhaps the third best Democratic Senate pick up opportunity behind Massachusetts and Nevada. We are not going to test Gabrielle Giffords against Jon Kyl if this wins, even though a fair number of folks suggested we do so. It just doesn't seem appropriate at this point.
-Colorado. This is one of the three remaining Bush 2004/Obama 2008 states we haven't polled yet. The Presidential race there will certainly be interesting but if this wins you're going to have to help us think of what else to ask on the poll.
-Connecticut. I have a feeling Quinnipiac will get the first poll out post-Lieberman retirement for the state but there wouldn't be any harm in getting a couple different sets of eyeballs on the new landscape for the 2012 Senate race there.
-Nebraska. We've put this on every poll vote we've had the entire cycle so far and it never comes close but once again interested in seeing whether we confirm the Republican polls that have basically shown Ben Nelson to be toast and interested in seeing if Obama can win the Omaha based Congressional district again.
-New Hampshire. The only reason I'm really willing to do this one is to see what impact a Rudy Giuliani candidacy would have in the Republican primary- beyond that we don't need another poll showing that Mitt Romney is the mid-30s with everyone else at least 20 points back. Of course we'd look at the general election too.
-New Mexico. Another of the Bush/Obama states we haven't looked at yet and it could have an interesting Senate race if Jeff Bingaman retires. I suppose it could have an interesting one even if Bingaman doesn't retire but he's one of the more popular Senators out there.
-South Carolina. This is the greatest unknown among the early Republican primaries- we know Huckabee's up in Iowa, we know Romney's up in New Hampshire and Nevada but we don't really know about this one. The general election numbers here might be interesting too, seems like a state where Obama could be competitive with a Palin nomination.
Voting is open until Thursday morning.