Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Obama on positive turf in North Carolina

Barack Obama's popularity rise has come to North Carolina. For the first time since December of 2009 PPP finds more voters in the state approving than disapproving of him, at a 49/47 spread.

Increased optimism about the economy in the state is helping Obama's revival. Last March a majority of voters in the state at 51% felt their personal economic situation had gotten worse since Obama took office compared to only 10% who thought it had improved. Now the portion feeling things have gotten worse for them is down to 47% and the one thinking things have gotten better is up to 16% with 37% expressing the sentiment that there's been no change for them since the President was inaugurated.

In addition to voters reflecting more positively now on what has happened with the economy over the last two years, they're also more optimistic about where things are going to be a year from now. A year ago 35% thought the economy would be worse now than it was then compared to just 27% who thought things would get better. Now there are equal numbers at 30% each who think things will be improved in January 2012 from where they are now. Voters in the state still aren't terribly optimistic about where things are going, but they're at least more optimistic than they have been.

Obama's gain in popularity has been fueled by voters in the center. A year ago his approval rating with moderates was 59%. Now it's up to 69%. This improvement in his standing, along with the lukewarm reaction of voters in the state to the leading 2012 Republican Presidential contenders, has him in position to repeat his surprise North Carolina victory from 2008. He leads the four most likely GOP contenders at this point by margins ranging anywhere from 3 to 9 points in this month's poll.

Mitt Romney comes the closest to Obama this time, trailing 47-44. Mike Huckabee is next, with a 49-45 deficit. Newt Gingrich is down 50-44 and and Sarah Palin as usual fares the weakest of the GOP hopefuls trailing Obama by nine points at 50-41.

It's safe to say Republicans have no chance at taking back the White House next year without winning North Carolina. Obviously the election is 21 months away but the President's resurgence here is a very bad sign for the GOP.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

I find the results on personal economic situation to be quite interesting, given that broad employment surveys have shown that minorities have been hit hardest by the depression, yet its whites who claim most that their economic situation has worsened. Perhaps it's a psychological effect, just like all the people who thought Obama had raised their taxes when they really went down.

Jonny V said...

I know it's too early to really have any real idea of what's going to happen in Nov. 2012 but it is really reassuring to see this positive news.

Like you say if the GOP can't win NC they have no chance of winning the election.

I know it's most likely going to come down to the economy and jobs --- if there's improvement Obama will win, if there's not he will have to count on the Republicans nominating Sarah Palin...

But I also think that the GOP majority in the House is going to make huge fools of themselves over the next two years. They are on the wrong side of every single issue and they are also idiots and assholes. That's not going to wear very well.

Granny T said...

Did you poll the 2012 GOP race in NC?

Anonymous said...

Another great reason to hold the Dem National Convention in Charlotte!

Norcross schools said...

What this article glosses over, and what Johnnie V will never understand, is that the GOP will rise everytime Obama and Reid look bad. If you haven't noticed, Obama is extremely astute at doing stupid things in direct opposition of the majority of Americans. In his State of the Union speech, he basically showed his hand....he will continue to be inept as a leader and contentious toward American values. It is laughable how Johnnie V says the GOP is in trouble, when I'm sure he was mum about the tidalwave that hit his blind party in November.

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