Wednesday, January 19, 2011

The Republicans' choice

We'll release our national poll numbers tomorrow looking at how Barack Obama fares for reelection against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann who you all voted in as this month's 'bonus Republican.'

That's not what I found most interesting about this round of the 2012 poll though. We also asked respondents this: "Do you think Republicans would be better off with someone well known like Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney as their Presidential nominee next year, or would they be better off with someone newer to the national scene who is currently not as well known?"

47% of Republicans said they thought the party should stick with one of the current top four, compared to 35% who thought they should go with a fresher face.

With independents it was a completely different story: 56% said the Republicans needed to go with someone new to only 24% who said they should nominate one of the old hands.

The findings on this poll question nicely summarize the current state of the Presidential race- independents hate the current crop of GOP contenders and because of that Barack Obama is leading them in head to head match ups even in a lot of states where he has approval numbers that are under water. At the same time Republicans kind of like their leading lights and would be perfectly happy to nominate one of them. At some point though they're going to have to decide whether they should nominate someone they've known a long time and are comfortable with- or whether they'd rather go with a newer face they don't know as well, but who might actually be able to defeat Barack Obama.

15 comments:

The Interesting Times said...

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Republicans like the current group of frontrunners.

It's equally likely that there's some apprehension about the risks of betting the farm on a less-tested, less-well-known new face.

DBL said...

I think you're missing it here. Very often "Generic Republican" or "Generic Democrat" does better because people don't like the incumbent and can imagine the generic opponent as however they want.

The alternative shouldn't be "someone newer to the national scene." You should give four names that are newer to the national scene but not totally unknown. You could use Christie, Rubio, Brown, Jindal, Ryan, Pawlenty, or even people like McCarthy, Haley, or Martinez. Most aren't running, but these are newer non-national Republicans that might make Republicans or independents more excited.

Anonymous said...

I agree with IT.

truthman said...

and once again the liberal media tries to trick the GOP into nominating a RINO

WE WON'T FALL FOR IT THIS TIME

The Interesting Times said...

DBL:
"You should give four names that are newer to the national scene but not totally unknown. You could use Christie, Rubio, Brown, Jindal, Ryan, Pawlenty, or even people like McCarthy, Haley, or Martinez."

PPP has tried including them in their GOP primary polls, and they usually score in the single-digit range.

It's a Catch-22 situation, really. The frontrunners are unpopular, but nobody knows the alternatives well enough to trust them.

Charles Giacometti said...

Great news for Democrats and for our country.

Palin will run, and the unhinged and angry Republicans will make sure she is the nominee.

She will then suffer the worst loss in history, likely less than 30% of the popular vote and perhaps zero electoral votes.

So, "Run, Sarah, Run!"

Anonymous said...

DBL,

Who on earth is McCarthy?

PorkyouPine said...

If it's true it's good news for Herman Cain. He's got the tea party wind at his back without the baggage of Palin. Whoever the canidate might be they're going to need Tea Party support this time around. They also have to confound the Liberal myths about the tea party and give independents someone to really look at. Herman Cain can do it, I don't see many other candidates who can go toe to toe with Obama. The man isn't shy he lauched his political carrier helping to bring down Hillarycare;)

NRH said...

It'd be nice to get some data on exactly why 56% of independents and 35% of Republicans dislike the current crop of Republican candidates. Maybe a 'please pick the word you best think describes this candidate from the following list' question, or 'please rate [candidate] from 1 to 5 on the following qualities, 1 if you wish they were less x, 5 if you wish they were more x, 3 if they're just right:' and then list, say, 'conservative,' 'intelligent,' 'electable,' 'devout,' etc. It'd be a long one, but that might be what it would take to get insight into what the current crop is lacking that people want.

Jack Somers said...

One of these 4 people WILL be the nominee: Mike Huckabee, Mike Pence, Jon Huntsman Jr., Jeb Bush

Anonymous said...

The last time that you commented on this, you said that Huckabee was best loved by Republicans and Romney was best liked by independents. Has this actually changed?

Jonny V said...

Luckily I don't think the core base of the Republican Party is willing to vote strategically.

They will vote for their favorite regardless of their chances in November.

Here's hoping for Sarah Palin... pleaseeeeeeeeeee.

DBL said...

McCarthy is Kevin McCarthy. He's Majority Whip despite just starting his third term.

I'm not saying to poll each individually. I'm saying to give the people real names to decide group A (old guys) or group B (new guys)? Do they really want "one of the above?"

The tea party will be less important this time. Hard core activists weld more power the smaller the electorate is. You'll get a lot more people voting in these primaries than the 2010 primaries. Most of those people won't be tea party. They were already in for 2010.

NRH said...

Women really, really don't like Palin or Gingrich. They aren't thrilled with any of the others, but there's something about, respectively, a moron making women look bad, and a guy who divorced his wife while she was in the hospital being treated for cancer, that drives women away. Republicans are scratching their heads trying to figure it out.

Anonymous said...

Try an obscure member of Congress like... Congressman Todd Platts of PA. He is middle of the road with most votes, but leans more conservative fiscally than many and he takes NO PAC $$$. Look at the records and see how many others in Congress support the party line because the campaign $$$ influences their vote. This guy will probably never run however because he refuses to be forced to vote the way the $$$ goes. His 1st campaign for Congress was funded by sandwich sales and grassroots mom & pop donations. He beat out well funded rich guys with local name recognition.He represents the majority of his constituents very well and gets mass support from Repubs and Dems. Platts is a politician that most Americans could get behind if they only had the chance to know him. That will never happen in our money driven elections.
I'm sure there are many more like him....

 
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