West Virginia was the winner of our vote on where to poll this weekend but I think if folks had known Kay Bailey Hutchison was going to retire that would have won instead so we're going to push West Virginia back a week and do Texas this time.
I think we have space probably to test 4 Republicans vs. 3 Democrats and then we can test up to 8 of each party for the 'who would be your top choice as a Senate candidate' question that we've been asking of primary voters on a state by state basis.
Who should we test? I realize the field will develop over time and regret that we can't test every match up under the sun but this will at least give us an initial idea of whether Democrats have any chance and if any Republicans start out particularly formidable.
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former Rep. Henry Bonilla
RON PAUL!!!111111!!!OMGGGGGbombZ
Michael Williams is the favourite, I would have thought.
Don't do Texas yet! We don't have candidates and not enough people will know KBH is retiring for another month or so.
WV makes more sense as a legitimate swing state. Just test Capito/Manchin, DADT, Palin's role in Giffords, and 2012.
The most likely Dem challengers are John Sharp & Chet Edwards. Don't bother testing Bill White because he's already stated that he won't run.
Source: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7294915.html
The most likely Republican candidates (whom I believe have already announced their runs for the U.S. Senate) include: Andrew Castanuela, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Michael Williams, & Roger Williams.
So I'd recommend testing those Dems against each Repub.
Rick Perry but he'd be flip flopping on his comments about "having the best job in the country" and his crusade to push more federalism as newly elected Texas governor. Ron Paul, I wonder if his name recognition trumps his possible notoriety. Michael Williams was the preferred candidate of the DeMint/RedState crowd before KBH went back on her pledge to drop out when she lost the Gov race. Jeb Hensarling is a credible conservative champion but he's in house leadership now. Culberson seems like he wants a national platform. Same for Joe Barton. Debra Medina if you're looking for yet another filler.
No clue with the Dems: 2010 retreads
How about testing Jesus Christ as a Democrat? I bet even he would trail...
(D) Bill White should be the obvious choice, Julian Castro (mayor of San Antonio) should also be a choice. One could say Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert would run as a Democrat, would be a good alternative to the Bill White- pro business Democrat. Also, John Sharp is one who always seems relevant.
(R) Roger Williams, Comm Michael Williams. However, pretty much anyone who can rally the Teabaggers and spew enough vitriol could win the nomination, regardless of their record.
I think Bill White told a newspaper reporter that he wouldn't run so I it's probably fruitless to include him in a poll. Ron Kirk won't run as well.
Didn't John Sharp mention that he would run for the U.S. Senate should the opportunity present itself?
In that case I'd test John Sharp & perhaps former U.S. rep Chet Edwards as the Democrats.
As for the Republicans, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, and Elizabeth Jones seem the most likely to run for the GOP nomination so I'd select them.
John Sharp & Chet Edwards vs. Michael Williams, Roger Williams, & Elizabeth Jones would likely be the best polling suggestions considering that Bill White & Ron Kirk won't run anyway.
R: Michael Williams, Tom Leppert, David Dewhurst. Leppert is forgoing running for another term as mayor, probably was planning on getting in the Senate race. Dewhurst and Williams both seem fairly likely, and IMO Williams is the most likely to win the nomination.
D: John Sharp, Chet Edwards, Julian Castro.
I'd be surprised if any of the D's is within 10 of any of the R's unless it's a function of name recognition and the R isn't making it out of the lower 40's.
How about Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee?
That's funny Andrew Carden.
But seriously test a handful of these: Michael Williams, Elizabeth Ames Jones, David Dewhurst, Tom Leppert, Greg Abbott. For Dems: Chet Edwards, John Sharp, may want to test Bill White as a "popular" Dem just to see their baseline even though he said he's not running.
BILL WHITE!!
For Reps, the two Williams (Michael and Roger) along with Dewhurst, and then one of the following: Tom Leppert, Greg Abbott, and Elizabeth Ames Jones.
An obvious GOPer would be Michael Williams, and maybe even Rick Perry (Oh the irony), but on the Dem side, polling Bill White, Chet Edwards, and John Sharp, who has already said he would run whenever the seat becomes available.
White for the DEMS.
Bill White for the Democrats, even though he said he won't run; he'll still have the best name recognition right now.
Just for S&G, how about George W. Bush as Republican candidate for Senator?
How do you have Obama at 45/51 approval/disapproval nationally and 46/49 favorable/unfavorable and show similar/better ratings for Obama in North Carolina and Florida to his national numbers?
Obama is generally holding up better in states that have large minority population, like NC and Florida.
for the Dems: Bill White, John Sharp, Chet Edwards, Julian Castro. For the rest of the 8: Nick Lampson, Hank Gilbert, Rick Noriega, Lloyd Doggett.
Here are the current candidates:
*Andrew Castanuela, licensed professional counselor
*Elizabeth Ames Jones - Texas railroad commissioner
*Michael Williams - Texas railroad commissioner
*Roger Williams - former Texas secretary of state
Castanuela (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/mjh/2010/09/16/running-for-us-senate-andrew-castanuela-r-texas) would be a good idea to test to see how a generic unknown Republican does.
I agree with testing W for Senate just for popular interest, even though there's no way he'll run
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Sec. of State Roger Williams and Rep. Joe Barton have already said they will consider running for the Republicans. Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert would make an interesting GOP candidate. The only potential Dem I have heard about is John Sharp. Bill White already declined.
Politico has a nice list of possible Republican candidates: http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0111/The_list_to_replace_KBH.html?showall
If you want only four, the first four make sense: David Dewhurst, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Elizabeth Ames Jones. Of those, least interested in Roger Williams. Dewhurst is the only one not currently in the race.
Among Democrats, Chet Edwards, John Sharp, and Henry Cuellar (who has some statewide experience as an appointed official).
In regards to the West Virginia race, I'm not interested in Capito as I don't expect her to run. If she runs for anything, I think it will be governor. Was interested in Betty Ireland, but she's already announced for governor. Raese is out. Who does that leave to run as a Republican for Senate?
West Virginia is a swing state. Manchin may be in the wrong party. However, it doesn't seem clearly established that anyone wants to run against him. The best chance may well have passed already. Voting against him in the 2010 race would have left him as governor. Not to mention the mobilized off year electorate.
for the Dems: Bill White, John Sharp, Chet Edwards, Julian Castro, Rick Noriega, Lloyd Doggett, Leticia Van de Putte, Kirk Watson
Dems:
Ron Kirk
Martin Frost
Chet Edwards
John Sharp
Bill White
GOPers:
Rick Perry
Ron Paul
Todd Staples
David Dewhurst
Perry should run (like Hoeven)leaving Dewhurst as Governor
Democrats: Bill White (as a good benchmark), John Sharp, Julian Castro, Lee Leffingwell, Annise Parker.
Republicans: Roger Williams, Michael Williams, Tom Leppert, David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Greg Abbott.
For the Dems...
Sharp, Castro, Edwards and maybe Mike Moncrief for a generic dem type look at it. I would not poll White or Kirk, total waste of time.
For Republicans, have to poll Williams, Dewherst, Leppert and Abbott.
I might actually poll Leppert as both a Democrat and a Republican for an interesting look at it.
http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/texas-senate-candidates-2012/
For the Republicans - Look at David Dewhurst, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, and as a fun one, why not George W. Bush or Laura Bush. Just a fun one.
For the Republicans, in no particular order:
-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst
-Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams
-Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert
-Soc. General Ted Cruz
-State Sen. Florence Shapiro
-
For Democrats:
-John Sharp
-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro
-Leticia van de Putte
-State Sen. Kirk Watson
-State Sen. Leticia van de Putte
The problem for the Democrats, as other people have indicated, is that few have come forward thus far, making the list of potential candidates very limited. In fact, Leticia van de Putte says she isn't running, but I included her anyway just to gauge reactions.
I'm also curious to see the results of a Generic Republican and a Generic Democrat. I seem to be alone in this sentiment, but I firmly believe that if the Democrats nominate someone moderate to conservative, like John Sharp, and invest the necessary resources in the state, they could win.
I'd appreciate some officials from down in the weeds, maybe state sen and state house, or business types for the dems. Lack of profile sometimes helps.
There are about 16,571 Republicans waiting to run for Senate.
Any poll you take has to include Michael Williams and David Dewhurst from buzz alone.
That leaves a few others-
Announced:
Roger Williams
Elizabeth Ames Jones
Interested:
Tom Leppert
Ted Cruz
Joe Barton
Interesting:
Debra Medina
Ron Paul
Dan Patrick
Mix and match and take your pick. On the Democratic side, I think the options have been pretty well covered. However, do consider Kinky Friedman. Last year he was leading in polls for the Democratic primary for a time, and his name recognition and solid reputation with conservatives really makes him a wildcard if he ran (which you never really know if he will or not).
When are the Texas numbers coming out?
Also SUPER curious about George W. Bush's approval among Texans.
Democrats who have declined on-the-record since KBH announced retirement are Adrian Garcia, Ron Kirk, Leticia Van de Putte and Bill White. While they might changed their mind, I wouldn't waste the effor on them.
Democrats who are potentials would be Julian Castro, Chet Edwards, John Sharp and Kirk Walker.
Republican who has declined is Florence Shapiro. Other potentials are Joe Barton (says he is interested), Andrew Castanuela, David Dewhurst, Craig James (says he's interested), Elizabeth Ames Jones, Tom Leppert, Ron Paul, Michael Williams and Roger Williams.
Interesting when a poll was conducted in Feb 2009 had the following special election results:
Roger Williams 25%
Michael Williams 23%
John Sharp 19%
Florence Shapiro 16%
Andrew Castanuela 15%
The others were below 1% (Elizabeth Jones, Nick Latham, and Lela Pettinger.)
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