Monday, January 31, 2011

This week's finalists...

Here are the finalists for the two states where we'll poll this weekend. Voting is open until Thursday morning. As with last week we'll take the top two vote getters- unless neither of them has a 2012 Senate race. In that case we'll do the top vote getter and the top one that has a 2012 Senate rate. And as always if we see the same person voting for one state hundreds of times we reserve the right to disqualify it from consideration. Here they are:

-Colorado. One of the three remaining Bush/Obama states that we haven't polled yet. Interested to see if Obama's holding on in the state but beyond that would definitely need your suggestions on what to ask there without a race for Senator or Governor in 2012.

-Connecticut. Not interesting at the Presidential level but we have about 42 million permutations for the Senate race there next year that we could look at.

-Georgia. This is one of the few states Obama didn't win in 2008 that he could conceivably pick up next year- although certainly only in a landslide. Particularly interested in seeing how Gingrich's home state reacts to a potential bid. Like Colorado would need suggestions on what else to ask without a marquee down ballot race in 2012.

-Missouri. We already polled Missouri in early December but we're willing to take a look at it again already because the nature of the Senate race has really changed with Jim Talent not running and a bunch of new Republican names on the table. Also interested in seeing if the nationwide resurgence in popularity Obama had over the course of January now has him in better shape for taking Missouri next year.

-New Hampshire. Main interest here, like last week, is seeing what impact Rudy Giuliani getting into the Presidential race would have in the state. And also if the huge Republican year in the state bodes poorly for Obama's reelection prospects next year or if that was just a blip on the radar.

-New Mexico. Another of the Bush/Obama states that we haven't made it to yet although given his 15 point victory in the state in 2008 I have a hard time thinking it's going to be competitive next year, even with Susana Martinez's strong performance for Governor last year. Also a potentially interesting Senate race, particularly if Jeff Bingaman decides to hang it up.

-Washington. Maria Cantwell and Debbie Stabenow both won extremely close races against incumbents in 2000, then cruised to reelection in the Democratic wave year of 2006. Barack Obama won both of their states by about the same margin. Stabenow looks like she might really be in trouble for reelection. Is Cantwell? BTW for the purpose of keeping the survey at a reasonable length we would skip the Governor's race for now and just stay focused on President and Senate.

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

Everyone vote Missouri, nothing really interesting going on in other states except WA-gov, which PPP said they won't poll. Ohh and btw Martinez beating Dennish 53/47 after having a double digit leads in many polls in a wave R year would actually make me think she had a weak performance not a strong one. Any other year Martinez would have been creamed.

Alex said...

I have some ideas for my state of Colorado.

1. Approval of SOS Gessler, since he's going to continue with his lawyering side job. Liberals are hitting hard at him, though it seems to me most people don't care that much.

2. Does the state support Suther's actions in sueing over ObamaCare?

3. Do republicans want another term of Dick Wadhams? I know they won't know the two other major candidates running, but they are certain to have an opinion of him.

4. Is McInnis viable to run again? (He said he's thinking about it). Slash has he done enough to clear his name and his approvals.

5. Would Colorado rather have a booming energy economy, or a well protected environment? Always a major issue.

Anonymous said...

WHAT!!!!!! NO NEBRASKA!! Apparently a close third place doesn't count for much.

Anonymous said...

Connecticut!

Open Senate seat!

Anonymous said...

umm..sorry for the above comment on Nebraska. PPP Rules again!!

Anonymous said...

That mean you want not to poll Washington... The most interesting race is for governor.

Anonymous said...

I don't understand why you don't finish polling states Obama won in 2008 and may be swing states in 2012, like Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire. Those are my top choices but somehow two or three people are voting for states like Nebraska? WTF. Do we really need a poll from Nebraska!

Anonymous said...

It seems silly to me to test the Senate race in Washington instead of the Governor's race. McKenna is the most popular Republican in the state and is pretty clearly running for Governor, so I'd wager all my money that it ends up being the more interesting race.

b said...

I live in Georgia, people really hate Obama here.

Anonymous said...

My hunch is that Missouri and Colorado will both flip, so Colorado will go GOP and Missouri will go for Obama. Both states are "swing states" that can swing AGAINST the political tide. So while both are swing states, neither are bellweathers, per se. But both are fairly conservative, so they'll be competitive.

I'd like to see New Mexico polled, personally. I'm curious to see if the "Rocky Mountain red state" shift has extended to that state.

Anonymous said...

-1 for Missouri again, while they still very interesting states unpolled...

Anonymous said...

Nebraska General President numbers released today... I assume Senate numbers coming soon

Anonymous said...

Colorado -

*Energy versus Clean Environment
*Opinion of the Colorado Rockies (and are you ever going to release your baseball team polls ?)
*Opinions of Mark Udall - Test a Republican against him even though he's not up until 2014?
*Opinions of AG John Suthers (probably the most popular statewide Republican)

*A bill is being introduced to recognize civil unions - do you support this? http://coloradoindependent.com/73527/hemmed-in-by-state-anti-gay-marriage-law-steadman-to-introduce-civil-unions-bill

*Invest in mountain bike paths or cut the deficit?

*A state that loves their guns ... a question on this?

arksif said...

Alright, my top choice of Maine lost (my top choice was ND but I didn't realize they had laws against robopolling). I still hope we get a Maine poll soon, though. So many interesting permutations of the senate race there.

Also, why are you polling WA-SEN but not WA-GOV? IMO, WA-GOV is the more interesting of the two races.

Anonymous said...

"I don't understand why you don't finish polling states Obama won in 2008 and may be swing states in 2012"

It sounds like you are interested in general election, presidential polls. However, many of us would prefer to see who the Republican candidate is before concentrating on those kinds of polls. That gives us more of a focus on states that may impact primaries rather than the general election.

Also, at this point, the big question is who will actually run. It's hard to do that right in the presidential race. You have to do a bunch of polls to get an idea of how the momentum will flow. Not to mention testing different possible candidate sets (two of the biggest candidates, Huckabee and Palin, are sending mixed messages about running). It's more feasible to do this for Senate races, where candidates only care about the results of one state.

Nebraska is irrelevant in the general election (either four or five electoral votes for the Republican; the law may be changed to make it a definite five). I don't know that it is a really significant primary state (neither large nor one of the first states). However, it does have an incumbent who is expected by many to lose the Senate race. Is he toast or not?

Anonymous said...

I voted for Missouri, and hoping New Mexico comes 2nd. Colorado wouldnt be interesting lol. Thanks for all the hard work PPP!

NRH said...

New Hampshire.

"Which party would you prefer to see control the state legislature?"

"Do you approve or disapprove of the NH House Republican majority's bill to bar college students and members of the military from voting in New Hampshire?"

"Do you believe the NH House Republican majority has taken effective action to create jobs, or have they been working on social and political issues instead?"

AG said...

I asked this question before but I think it bears repeating since the issue has re-manifested itself in recent days: in light of his overtly genocidal comments towards Arabs and Muslims, can we really consider Mike Huckabee a legitimate presidential contender?

Anonymous said...

In 2012 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, there are two announced Republican candidates, both are failed New Mexico's 2nd congressional district candidates: conservative activist Bill English and businessman Greg Sowards. Other New Mexican Republicans worth checking are former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, PR firm owner and failed 2010 Republican primary gubernatorial candidate Doug Turner and incumbent Lt. Gov. John Sanchez.

Anonymous said...

If WA wins you should definitely do the Gov race... everyone knows it's going to be McKenna v. Inslee

Josh said...

Voted New Mexico, I think Gary Johnson is the GOP's only shot here at Bingaman's seat, otherwise he should coast to re-election. With a likely national fundraising base, Johnson vs. Bingaman would make for good political theater.

Brian Morton said...

For Colorado:
- Approval of Sen. Mark Udall, perhaps a poll of him vs. a Republican (though the race won't be until 2014)

- Approval of AG John Suthers, opinion of his lawsuit against healthcare reform.

- Approval of Governor John Hickenlooper, who won under bizarre circumstances

- Approval of the newly Republican state House and/or the newly Republican US House

- Opinion of healthcare reform

James Butabi said...

Please include Gary Johnson if you poll New Mexico. Former Governor, his numbers should be pretty good and that might convince him to try to Senate.

Anonymous said...

Be sure to poll Gary Johnson as a potential Senate candidate for New Mexico! I think you'd be surprised at how much support he still has in the state!

MLabreche said...

Gary Johnson as an option in the NM Senate poll will attract a lot of media attention.

PH said...

PPP is the best and smartest polling company. You have another opportunity to prove that by adding former Governor and potentiel presidential candidate Gary Johnson in the New Mexico poll. From what's I've heard, he's still very popular in his state.

Joselito said...

After reading the comments, I've decided to vote New Mexico. Josh's post about Gary Johnson sounds like a good idea because he could potentially get as much support as Rand Paul did.

Peter Jessop said...

Do you remember how much media attention the Ron Paul for Senate in Texas poll got? It should be the same, on a smaller scale, if you include Gary Johnson in the New Mexico for Senate poll.

Anonymous said...

Hello Tom, could you poll Gary Johnson in New Mexico please?

Anonymous said...

Please include Gary Johnson in future PPP. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

I'd be interested in seeing Gary Johnson's numbers as well.

Anonymous said...

I vote Colorado, and I want to be included in the poll!

I DON'T agree with whoever said this State would go GOP...not true...its getting stronger and stronger on DEMS and OBAMA!

 
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