Missouri and Maine were the winners of our vote on where to poll this week.
In Missouri we'll test Sarah Steelman, Ann Wagner, and Ed Martin against Claire McCaskill, and Peter Kinder against Jay Nixon. Is there anyone else we need to look at in those races? Suggestions on that front, as well as for any other questions you think we should ask in Missouri would be much appreciated.
In Maine we'll look at Andrew Ian Dodge and Scott D'Amboise in the primary against Olympia Snowe. Are there any other potential primary challengers we should look at against Snowe? There's really not much point in going beyond those two guys unless there's anyone with any sort of statewide name recognition who might end up going against Snowe. And what Democrats should we test in general election match ups? If there's anything beyond the Senate race you think we should test just let us know. Thanks as always for the suggestions! We will test the Presidential race and approval ratings for all Senators and Governors on these polls like we always do.
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For Maine's general U.S. senatorial election I'd suggest testing Democrats Emily Cain, Hannah Pingree, & Rosa Scarcelli against Olympia Snowe.
Jefferson County was once a solid democratic stronghold in Missouri but it swung to the GOP in a big way in 2010. Would be interesting to see whether thats a long term shift in voting behavior or a temporary outlet for economic/political anxiety
I think McCaskill's only challenger will either be Martin or Steelman.
As for the senate race, ask Missourians how they feel about WI Governor Walker's restrictive collective-bargaining bill and whether they support making Missouri a right-to-work state.
In Maine, how about polling Rosa Scarcelli & Emily Cain against Olympia Snowe? I don't know if there are any other Democrats likely to challenge Snowe.
Oh, and also ask Mainers how they feel about Walker's restrictive collective-bargaining bill and whether they'd support making Maine a right-to-works state!
For Maine, I would ask for opinions on the welfare reform plan proposed by the governor.
Just as a reminder, don't bother testing Sam Graves or Jim Talent against Claire McCaskill or in a GOP primary poll because neither will run for the U.S. Senate.
Ask Missourians if they'd support Gov. Nixon if he were to veto a GOP redistricting plan to eliminate Carnahan's congressional district.
Be interested to see the ME GOP primary results. For the general, I wouldn't poll the Dems against Snowe, as barring a surprise, she should be crushing them and wouldn't tell anything new. Poll D'Amboise/Dodge or just generically a more conservative GOP nominee v the Dems.
For the Dems, definitely Scarcelli, as she's the only one showing direct interest. Maybe Pingree/Cain/Michaud?
In Maine, maybe poll on Kevin Scott, an Independent, against Snowe. He ran a solid campaign for Governor.
Since Maine recently had a very close gay marriage ballot referendum, it might be interesting to get generic gay marriage numbers.
In Missouri poll the question of replacing the state income tax with an increased and expanded sales and use tax. This will be on the ballot sometime in 2012. Thanks...
Hannah Pingree, Emily Cain, Rosa Scarcelli as Maine Democrats
In Maine, how about testing LePage against Snowe, in the primary or in a three-way race with LePage as an independent? Even if he wouldn't want to try to switch offices so early, he would make a good proxy for 'well known teabagger.'
Maine marriage equality would also be a good one.
For Missouri, how about something on the Cardinals? Either a 'how optimistic are you for the season' question, or something about opinions on Pujols and whether he'll re-sign.
Tom Allen
Michaud
Libby Mitchell
Cutler and Michaud as Democrats in Maine.
Poll the approvals of Michaud & Pingree anyway since it's such a small state.
I would test LePage against Snowe. Not because he's likely to run against her, but because he's the best known "Tea Party" figure in Maine.
Also, I wonder if Romney's numbers have improved at all since the last time Maine was polled.
@bdeclue: We can't poll individual counties or break results down by county.
You might do a question regarding labor. I heard LePage wants to be another Scott Walker. Also try Snowe as a dem and indy in the GE. Many thanks PPP.
NRH. That wouldn't make sense. LePage is very supportive of Snowe and she of him. There is a zero percent chance that happens.
See if ME has buyer's remorse on its Gov election from November
For MO, IDK how many questions y'all can ask, but, if you can fit it in, try the SoS race to see how damaged Carnahan is from her 2010 Sen race. MO-04 primary loser (and former state sen) Bill Stouffer is running.
Also in ME, ask Republican primary voters if LePage's endorsement of Snowe (he's endorsed her, so no need to test him in a primary as some have suggested) affects their vote.
In the Maine GOP primary, wealthy developer Eric Cianchette is said to be considering a run (http://bit.ly/h55oHq) and would be a well funded, credible candidate unlike D'Amboise and Dodge. I strongly suggest you include him.
I hope you include higher level candidates in both sides for see if it is real danger or not for Snowe. As democrats:
John Baldacci
Mike Michaud
Chellie Pingree
As republican teabaggers for the primary:
Paul LePage
Chandler Woodcock
Peter Cianchette
Don't forget to poll Baldacci like you poll Bredesen (TN-Sen), Carcieri (RI-Sen) or Schwarzenegger (CA-Sen).
Now Hawaii needs to be polled after MO and ME.
Akaka announced his retirement.
You could test:
Brian Schatz vs. Linda Lingle
Mazie Hirono vs. Linda Lingle
Ed Case vs. Linda Lingle
Colleen Hanabusa vs. Linda Lingle
I strongly agree with NRH and other commenters. LePage would give the rigth point about a strong teabbager challenge against Snowe.
Dems: Michaud and Baldacci. Baldacci he is unpopular but Carcieri is also unpopular.
Chandler Woodcock, Paul LePage, Emily Cain, John Baldacci, Hannah Pingree, and Mike Michaud are absolutely 100% not running, guaranteed. They've all but ruled it out. Testing them would be pointless and a waste of time.
Bwahahahaha. Kevin Scott ran a "solid" campaign? 1% in the general election is "solid"? Then what's a failure? No votes?
Cianchette wouldn't be any more credible than D'AMboise or Dodge; nobody's ever heard of him. He has zero name ID. One thing we found out from Bruce Poliquin this cycle is that money doesn't buy you credibility in Maine.
LePage is not a substitute for anyone else; no candidate is. That's frankly a dumb argument. If you want to poll on generic conservatives, poll on generic conservatives. Otherwise, poll on real candidates or the data is all but useless.
How about just a generic Republican candidate against McCaskill as well?
Scarcelli is a joke, but sure, why not poll her.
Hannah Pingree is the best on the Democrats' bench, but she's just left the legislature and is no gonna run against Snowe.
What about Pingree against LePage for governor in 2014?
For Missouri: poll Todd Akin. He said he's looking at the race.
Also, at some point it might be interesting to test the Republican field against some other Democrat - not because there's any likelihood of President Obama deciding against a second term, but for the sake of finding out whether the weakness of the Republican field right now is in contrast to him, or they're just disliked in their own right. Generic Democrat, or NY Gov Cuomo, or former VA Gov Tim Kaine, for example, could all produce some useful contrasts.
It'd take a lot more questions to go through extra permutations on the Democratic side along with the Republican options, but if there's nothing else that seems pressing in Missouri, that might be an interesting one to find out.
We need Todd Akin in Missouri.
Test Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud in the general.
In Maine it might be interesting to know viewpoints on gay marriage to see if anything has changed since '09.
It's ludicrous Cianchette wouldn't be any more credible than D'Amboise or Dodge.
In Maine, I would love to see how Snowe does if she goes the route of Charlie Crist/Lisa Murkowski and runs as an independent. That would be a great question to include. For Democrats, Mike Michaud, Elliott Cutler, and Rosa Scarcelli seem like the best people to poll.
Chellie Pingree has already declined a possible senate challenge against Snowe so it would be fruitless to include her in a poll.
The same goes for Todd Akin in MO. He's not running at all.
I think that Martin, Steelman, & Wagner will be the only 3 GOP primary candidates in MO.
Here is some people interested in poll only no name candidates against Snowe. No sense. Im'not against poll some of the somedudes, but it is necessary to poll also the strongest politicians.
Michaud, Chellie Pingree, Baldacci as D and LePage for the republican primary.
A lot less interested by people like Scarcelli (close to no-name) that want run only if O Snowe run not! She is very smart!
Tim Kaine (VA) is also officially running not, and was included in the poll.
I would add State Rep. Dale Crafts to the list, I think he would have a great shot at winning both a GOP Primary and the General Election
Rep. Crafts is from Lisbon ME
Here's another potential primary opponent for Snowe:
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/03/conservative-ac.php
Cutler against Snowe. It would be interesting to see the split on that one. That "independent/moderate vote" is big up here. Polling Paul Lepage opposing Snowe might give you a decent thermometer in terms of organized anti-Snowe sentiment, as well. It's doubtful Woodcock, Cianchette, or Otten would look much different from one another vs Sen. Snowe. Baldacci, Pingree, and Scarcelli seem to have the most name recognition amongst the Democrats. Steven Rowe and Janet Mills could be worth the time polling. Thanks for your work, PPP.
You should include Kinder against both McCaskill and Nixon
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