The winners of this week's vote on where to poll were Mississippi and Florida.
For Mississippi:
-What are the general election match ups for Governor that we have to poll...in other words who really has a serious chance of winning each party's nomination?
-Doubt any serious Dems are going to challenge Roger Wicker after he dispensed with Ronnie Musgrove but who would you like to see us test?
-Any other good questions we should ask in Mississippi.
In Florida:
-Who would you like to see us test against Bill Nelson?
-Anything else you think we should cover in Florida?
Thanks as always...
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56 comments:
Why not test primary match ups in MS?
Test these vs. Nelson:
Adam Hasner
Mike Haridopolos
Connie Mack
George LeMieux
Test Jeb and Rubio vs. Obama and Jeb in the GOP primary, and the primary without Jeb, and then the primary without Huck, without Palin, and without either. Might be worth testing Giuliani's favs if not in the primary field.
Gene Taylor and Travis Childers in MS. Jeff Miller, Connie Mack, George LeMieux, Mike Haridopolos, Jennifer Carroll and Paula Dockery against Nelson in FL.
Jeff Miller in Florida
I would like to see Rubio vs. Obama and/or Jeb Bush vs. Obama numbers in FL. Also numbers on whether people think public employees should have the right to collective bargaining.
Are you guys aware of the right wing site Redracinghorses.com attacking PPP? They seem to be insinuating you are pulling a Research 2000.
Sink Vs. Scott re-do in Florida.
Test Jimmy Wales (the founder of Wikipedia) in Florida. There is a website set up to draft him, and some talk on twitter about it the other day (he tweeted something about it I believe). I highly doubt this goes anywhere, but it's the equivalent of testing Drew Carey for senate in Ohio or Donald Trump for president. Just kind of interesting.
Mississippi: Obama vs. Barbour, Huckabee, Romney, Palin, Gingrich and Trump. Primary with Barbour, Huck & Palin-not-running-option. You could also poll gay marriage to see if opinions on the issue changed over the past years. Florida: Obama vs. Huck, Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Jeb Bush and Rubio. Ask GOP Primary voters the regular 2012 matchups and if they favor or oppose an early primary date, even if they get punished for it.
I second the suggestion of a Scott re-do poll.
For MS
Childers and Taylor in the Senate race for sure. DuPree and Luckett in the Governor race.
Rick Scott approval numbers. We need some new ones, and people are speculating already it could be under 40%.
Obama vs:
Romney
Huckabee
Palin
Gingrich
Then:
add Jeb
Test Mississippi and Florida without Palin or Gingirch (without Barbour in Mississippi too)
What about testing Jimmy Wales in Florida? He tweeted about potentially running although those close to him have said he has not made a decision either way.
Childers and Taylor in MS for both Senator and Governor
In FL I think Connie Mack comes closest but Jeb Bush should also be included just against Bill Nelson
Obama vs:
Romney
Huckabee
Palin
Gingrich
ADD:
Rand Paul
Sink Vs. Scott re-do in Florida. (3)
Against Nelson:
Hasner
Haridopolos
Mack
LeMieux
Joe Scarborough (this is a must!)
Jeb Bush
Also do one of the replay polls- Sink v. Scott in FL.
For Mississippi versus Wicker:
Ronnie Musgrove (just to see if anything's changed)
Travis Childers
Mike Moore
Jim Hood
Gene Taylor
Marriage equality in Florida.
Scott vs Obama
I would love to see Gay Marriage figures for both states.
MS
There's a huge problem in MS. Redistricting maps have to be done this year because the statewide elections are this year. And the Mississippi House, controlled by Democrats, is trying to add more African American seats to keep control of the House, and the Senate is refusing to pass their map. Billy McCoy, the Democratic State House Speaker, has made a fool out of himself by bypassing the Senate and going straight to the Justice Department.
So questions,
A) Do you approve of State House Speaker Billy McCoy?
B) Generic state legislature question (This is one of the last states where Democrats still have control in the South)
C) Do you approve of the current State House redistricting map? Do you want to see more AFrican American districts?
D) For governor: Phil Bryant (R) Johnny DuPree (D) Bill Luckett (D)
E) For Senate: Gene Taylor (D) Travis Childers (D)
F) Attorney General: Jim Hood (D) vs Steve SImpson (R) ... very important as its the last statewide race where Democrats have a chance to win.
In Mississippi, be sure to do a 2012 Republican Presidential primary poll with and without Barbour.
In Florida, I would put Mack, Haridopolos, and LeMieux against Nelson.
Has Jeb Bush sworn off challenging Nelson yet? If not, I would poll him too.
It might also be useful to poll Nelson against a generic "Republican in the mold of Marco Rubio." That's what some people are calling Haridopolos, in fact, and Rubio currently has much better name recognition than Haridopolos.
Agree with the others:
Sink vs. Scott Redo
Rubio v Obama
Jeb v Obama
Would really love to see a Rudy Giulliani poll, either against the GOP field or solo. He campaigned there hard in 2008. It's not likely that he runs, as of now, but it could happen, especially if someone big decides not to go for it.
Just for fun. In the battleground states like Florida, maybe start to get a baseline for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Maybe a question like, "if Hillary Clinton ran for president in 2016 would you support her or a republican." And then you could throw in Jed Bush in place of the generic republican in Florida. I really feel that a Clinton 2016 run is the republican worst nightmare. Possibly 12-16 years of a democrat in the white house and imagine how that would change the supreme court. I'd really like PPP to poll on this. If you started to create a baseline polling for 2016 you would get headlines, drive the narrative and start the inevitable trend of looking further out in elections.
Learn about awareness and approval ratings of FL representatives in Congressional leadership positions on committees.
Get a clear read on the Latino, Cuban vote
For Florida:
Haridopolos, Hasner, LeMeiux, Mack & Jeb vs Nelson
High speed rail, teacher tenure
Obama vs Jeb, Pawlenty, Barbour, Herman Cain
In Mississippi the filing deadline has already passed for Governor. The viable Republicans running are Lt. Gov Phil Bryant, businessman Dave Dennis and county supervisor Hudson Holliday. The Dems are Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree and businessman Bill Luckett. All except maybe Holliday are generally considered to have a shot at winning any Holiday's at least an elected so he should be polled.
For senate some good Dems are Taylor, Childres, and AG Jim Hood. Former AG Mike Moore may be worth polling too- he's considered running several times and always has backed down but its worth seeing if he's still viable in case 2012 is his year.
Jeff Miller
Jennifer Carroll
Mike Haridopolos
Connie Mack
Charlie Crist as Independent
Test Joe Scarborough and definitely Jennifer Carroll in Florida.
Fla -
Add Rand Paul vs Obama
Add Jimmy Wales vs Nelson.
Wales, and not just his supporters, is testing the waters.
Jim Folsom in MS
Yeah, everyone knows the race is in the primary in MS. Why not poll the Gov and Lt. Gov primaries?
In FL, the legislature is considering of expanding gaming in the state after the Seminole compact expires in 4 years. You should ask voters if they 1) approved of the compact, and 2) if they would support expanding gaming in the state when the compact is over.
Giuliani tells Palm Beach Republican Club presidential bid possible
In Palm Beach, Giuliani talks about 2012, Obama, Palin, Romney, tea parties
Can you please measure Rudy Giuliani's support in both the GOP primary and general election vs. Obama.
It would also be helpful to get an update on the level of support for drilling off Florida's coast.
Lake Worth Rep. Introduces Medical Marijuana Bill
Not sure how high medical marijuana ranks on the list of burning issues to survey, but you can probably count on the results generating quite a buzz in the Florida press.
Mississippi President:
Obama vs. Barbour/Huckabee/Romney/Gingrich/Palin/Trump
Regular 2012 primary poll with Barbour and another 2 with either Huck or Palin not running.
Mississippi Governor:
Phil Bryant vs. Johnny DuPree
Phil Bryant vs. Bill Luckett
Mississippi US Senate:
Roger Wicker vs. Travis Childers
Roger Wicker vs. Bennie Thompson
Roger Wicker vs. Gene Taylor
Maybe you could also poll Gay Marriage in the state to see if anything changed over the past years.
...
Florida President:
Obama vs. Huckabee/Romney/Gingrich/Palin/Trump
Just for fun:
Obama vs. Jeb Bush
Obama vs. Marco Rubio
Florida Governor:
Rematch between Scott and Sink.
Florida Senate:
Bill Nelson vs. Jeb Bush
Bill Nelson vs. Mike Haridopolos
Bill Nelson vs. Vern Buchanan
Bill Nelson vs. Jennifer Carroll
Bill Nelson vs. Adam Hasner
Bill Nelson vs. George LeMieux
Bill Nelson vs. Connie Mack
Plus: Gay Marriage Poll
Ask people who were active in the Tea Party (meaning they attended rallies and so on) whom they would support in 2012. To ask people who simply identify as Tea partiers are misleading; the real benefit that comes with support from the Tea Party is the massive amount of feet on the ground. So who is most popular among the activists? That's what I would like to know.
Dems in MS: Johnny DuPree and Bill Luckett.
Reps in MS: Phil Bryant is pretty much guaranteed to win the primary, but do Dave Dennis and Hudson Holliday as well.
Also, a generic state legislative ballot would be interesting.
For those of you suggesting Childers or Taylor for Governor, it's too late, the filing deadline was March 1. They can't run now.
I agree that Giuliani should be polled in the Florida.
Ask about Gene Taylor!!!!!!!!
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin narrowly lost, but you found here to have very positive numbers. I'm curious to see if Taylor is in the same situation.
Jim Hood and Gene Taylor for the senate in Mississippi. Hood is the Democratic Attorney General and is just 48.
Concur on Jimmy Wales in Florida. Red Racing Horses has talked to the founder of the movement to draft him, and says he's considering it.
http://www.redracinghorses.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=4EEA9AD0974FBBD741EF28726E732A13?diaryId=224
"Ask about Gene Taylor!!!!!!!!
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin narrowly lost, but you found here to have very positive numbers. I'm curious to see if Taylor is in the same situation."
We did Herseth-Sandlin because she served statewide. We can't do individual congressional districts in Mississippi as part of a statewide poll.
For Florida add in Rudy Guiliani and Jimmy Wales
To the folks who think Rand Paul has any chance in hell. No. Way. He's like Ron Paul without the integrity.
I definitely agree with someone who posted that you should test the Mississippi Attorney General race. Jim Hood has been a statewide elected official for several years but he's a Democrat in the South. That basically is the equivalent of an endangered species. Hood is the only Democrat who is serving due to the votes of citizens in a Mississippi statewide election. Republican Attorney General candidate Steve Simpson seems to have some name recognition.
With recent national polls suggesting a rapid and ongoing change in public opinion regarding same-sex marriage, it would be very interesting to see the numbers for same-sex marriage for both states, since I can't even find a recent poll on the issue in either one.
It looks like Bush has sworn off running against Nelson, but Mack is about to make it official:
http://www.marconews.com/news/2011/mar/24/connie-mack-senate-campaign-nelson
@Dustin From what I know about MS, Gene Taylor is pretty well-known statewide for a representative. I know you can't poll him in his individual district, but you can poll him statewide (as a gubernatorial or senatorial candidate) and see what his favorables are there. If he's widely liked statewide, it would be reasonable to assume that he lost because people were voting against Democrats in general, not against him specifically. I think he probably is one of Democrats best candidates left in the state (although there's not a lot of competition for that title).
Definetly Jim Hood
test jennifer carroll. rising star, big potential.
Florida: Haridopolos, Hasner, LeMieux, Jimmy Wales, Vern Buchanan.
Connie Mack is NOT running, so don't waste your time there.
Also, I second the MS Attorney General idea. Steve Simpson is the only Republican running, so you could easily tack it on.
Ask Mississippians what they think of same-sex marriage. And break it up by age!
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