Barack Obama's a little weaker in Maine than he was in 2008, but he doesn't appear to be at any serious risk of actually losing the state next year.
Obama took 58% of the vote against John McCain in Maine, winning it by 17 points. His approval rating has dropped a good bit from that level of support and is now 51% with 44% of voters disapproving of him. He is largely popular with the Democratic base at 84% approval but his support from Republicans is pretty limited with only 10% of them giving him good marks. He also fares well against independents at 53/41.
Only Mitt Romney gives Obama a remotely serious challenge and he still trails by 8 points at 49-41. Romney is not particularly well liked in the state with 34% of voters expressing a favorable opinion of him to 46% with a negative one. That puts him ahead of the curve of the rest of the Republican candidates though. Mike Huckabee's favorability is 31/45, Newt Gingrich's is 28/55, and Sarah Palin's is 31/64.
Huckabee, who trails by 12 points at 51-39, and Gingrich who trails by 16 points at 53-37 both perform better than John McCain did in the state. Palin, however, does not. Her 22 point deficit to Obama at 57-35 there would represent the worst loss for a Republican candidate in Maine since Barry Goldwater lost to Lyndon B. Johnson by 38 points in 1964.
Although Obama may not be as popular he was in 2008 he doesn't seem likely to lose any states next year where his approval rating remains above water. And he certainly won't as long as voters are reacting as negatively to the GOP contenders as they are in Maine.
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5 comments:
Once again Tom, you may want to try to take a look at who the undecideds are in the Palin-Obama matchup before you scream Goldwater. It's going to be pretty close to the McCain/Obama Maine result in 2008 if you actually thought about it.
Do you have a breakdown by congressional district? Maine splits it's vote by CD, so it would be interesting to see if Romney is competitive in the state's 2nd district (the more conservative one). I know you don't usually report results by district, but you did do that in Nebraska which also splits it's results by CD.
@First anonymous-Even if Palin picked up every single undecided voter, Obama would beat her 57-43. If Palin picks up anything less than 62.5% of the undecideds, she achieves the worst loss since Goldwater. And that's if every undecided person actually votes; a significant number of undecideds are probably people who just won't vote or will vote 3rd party. The fewer undecideds that vote, the more Palin needs to avoid Goldwater territory.
"Do you have a breakdown by congressional district?"
No, we have to poll each district separately when we do that, and we only did a statewide poll this time. It's not likely, with these leads, that he's losing in either. They haven't ever split their electors either.
"Once again Tom, you may want to try to take a look at who the undecideds are in the Palin-Obama matchup before you scream Goldwater. It's going to be pretty close to the McCain/Obama Maine result in 2008 if you actually thought about it."
I don't think you've actually thought about it. Not that many more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats, not compared to some states and nationally. But I did the math for you. If you assign all undecided Democrats to Obama, all undecided Republicans to Palin, and split independents proportionally to where they are now, Obama would win 60-40, still bigger than McCain's 17-point loss.
@Anonymous 2:
Won't the congressional districts be redrawn before the 2012 elections?
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