Thanks for the suggestions on where to poll this weekend. The finalists are below. I know a lot of people want us to poll Nevada...it's barely been two months since the last time we did so we'll put it back in the mix in April. Voting will be open until 4 PM or so tomorrow afternoon.
-Hawaii. One of the newly open Senate seats where we haven't seen any numbers at all, not even internal polls (which we have seen in Connecticut.) The big question here- does Linda Lingle actually make this competitive or is it an easy keep for Democrats no matter who the Republicans put up.
-Michigan. My interest in polling Michigan was piqued by how much better Sherrod Brown's doing now than he was in December. Debbie Stabenow was looking dicey in December too but is the sort of shift back toward the Democrats we've seen in Ohio and Wisconsin also occurring in Michigan? Interested in taking a look and also seeing if the shine's worn off Rick Snyder at all with independents.
-Mississippi. A rare state where there's a trifecta of things to look at- this year's Governor's race and next year's Senate and Presidential races. Gallup showed Obama's 2010 numbers in Mississippi to be unexpectedly good so interested to see if he has any real chance of taking the state and how his home state voters feel about Haley Barbour going for the White House.
-New Hampshire. If Obama's numbers have slipped as much in New Hampshire as they have in neighboring Maine then the state's back to being a toss up next year, so interested to get a read on that. We know Mitt Romney leads the state by a million points but I'm interested in testing some of the 'alternative Republican universes' there without Huckabee and/or Palin that we did on the national poll yesterday to see who would benefit there.
-Vermont. Another state where there's three things to poll although the Presidential race can't be remotely interesting. Does Bernie Sanders really have anything to worry about? And how is Peter Shumlin holding up after his first few months in office, since he has to go right back before the voters again next year.
We're only doing the top vote getter this week since we're also on schedule for a North Carolina poll. Don't game the poll...happy voting!
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5 comments:
If NH wins, see if John Lynch can win a fifth term, and see if Hodes would win a rematch with Ayotte. Also check the generic ballot to see if Democrats have to chance to win back the Congressional seats and the legislatures.
Is this "alternative Republican universes" thing going to be a regular feature of your polls now? I definitely like the idea.
For Michigan:
- I would say poll Virg vs. Snder redux, but I don't think Bernero was that popular. Maybe Dillon
- Ask how much they've heard about Snyder's budget plan (it hasn't been reported nearly as much as in OH/WI, but there's more noise in-state here), favorable/unfavorables of it, etc.
- Do you believe Governor Snyder is governing in the way he promised during his campaign? (Snyder presented himself as uber-moderate pragmatic, and only got through the Repub primary with ~35% of the vote)
- Poll support for *recalling* Snyder (Michigan allows recalls after 6 months - so in July.)
For Michigan: The proposal by Snyder which has created the most headwind is the tax of retirement income (currently not subject to Michigan state income tax; Snyder wants to tax it). Favorable/unfavorable?
For Michigan, another question to ask about is on the new law to allow the governor to take away local control from city governments and school boards.
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